As the NHL roster freeze is in full effect for the holidays, this is the final stretch of silence between the start of the season and the league-wide trade deadline. Blue Jackets defenseman Ivan Provorov will be a highly sought-after commodity, and despite his recently discussed desires; the obvious thing to do is trade him.
Provorov is exactly the kind of player contending teams are snooping around for. And, why not? Now in his 9th NHL season, Ivan is a capable, veteran puck moving defenseman who has stayed remarkably healthy. He's still young, too, and an acquiring team could envision him as a long-term option as well.
While he hasn't lived up to the expectations that come with being the #7 overall pick (in a very strong draft, no less); he's become a real pro, the kind of guy that can quarterback a power-play and move up and down the lineup. And, maybe the most attractive aspect here is his contract. Expiring after this year, his current hit is a very manageable $4.725m against the cap.
The Blue Jackets have plenty of room to retain half of that in the right deal, which means that the return here could be significant. The rumored asking price is a first round pick, but I expect that to be driven up to include other assets as teams line up to land a very affordable second pair defenseman who still has a lot of good miles left in him.
You might ask: if Ivan Provorov is so good and so affordable, why wouldn't the Blue Jackets just keep him? Two words: Dante Fabbro.
It's not so much you as it is us...
It's really pretty simple if you're playing the long game. As an expiring UFA, Don Waddell has to make the big decision: sign him, or trade him for assets. We talked last week about the pros and cons on both sides of this, but in reality, I don't think this is all that difficult a choice.
The Blue Jackets have two guys firmly signed long-term into their top-two defense pairings in Zach Werenski and Damon Severson. For better or worse, these guys are part of the corps moving forward; from both a contract and deployment perspective. Further down the lineup, Erik Gudbranson remains in the weeds as he recovers from injury. He'll be back at some point, with another year left in his deal. I could see the team extending him beyond, as well, as a cheap depth option.
Top prospect Denton Mateychuk is going to push for ice time soon. In fact, he already has - he was in the lineup ahead of Severson on Monday night. Even if you want to shelter him, this is a guy who is going to demand power-play ice when he's up here. That's what his game is built around, and I think he'll be more than serviceable as a #3/4 guy next season.
Which leads us to Fabbro, whose presence unlocked an entirely different level of Zach Werenski's game. Look no further than the last couple of weeks. In two and a half games without Fabbro as his partner, Werenski scored one goal and carried a -4 rating. In Dante's return on Monday, Zach had three assists. These two have chemistry, and Fabbro is going to be cheaper to re-sign than Provorov. And, he wouldn't return the same assets even if you did want to trade him.
I don't think I really need to say anything else in regards to this argument. Mateychuk will be ready next season. Werenski, Severson, Gudbranson, and a re-signed Fabbro gives this team a pretty solid top-5 on the blue line. They could bring back Jake Christiansen for an affordable two-way option on the third pairing, or go out and find someone on the open market.
The cost to acquire another defenseman to play the #5/6 role is going to be far less than the return you'll get for Ivan Provorov. For that reason, and Fabbro's emergence; I think trading him is the most logical thing to do.