With the way this season is going for the Columbus Blue Jackets, they are certainly going to be sellers at the trade deadline again this year. This is what we expected all along. Ivan Provorov is the gem of their pending unrestricted free agents. A legitimate top-four defenseman, he'll garner plenty of interest from around the league.
But, this may not be the slam-dunk trade we all thought it would be. Yesterday on Insider Trading, TSN's Pierre LeBrun mentioned that Ivan might prefer to stay in Columbus. This comes directly from his agent. His younger brother committing to the Ohio State Buckeyes makes it somewhat clear: the Provorov family does like Columbus. This had me thinking: what would be the pros and cons on both sides of this?
What are the pros and cons of trading Ivan Provorov?
Obviously, the first pro to trading Ivan Provorov would be the return. The rumored asking price is a first round pick, but with so many teams looking for an inexpensive top-four defenseman to help down the stretch and through the playoffs, that will certainly be driven up to include more assets. Provorov is as sturdy and reliable as they come, almost never missing a game. Certainly, the Blue Jackets will be selling on these facts to recoup some of the assets they gave up to get him in the first place.
Provorov already has part of his $6.75m AAV retained by the LA Kings. If the Blue Jackets were willing to retain half of the remaining $4.725m of his deal, they could almost guarantee themselves another high pick or prospect. When we're talking prospects: remember when the Blue Jackets got William Karlsson in return for James Wisniewski? Sniping an NHL-ready prospect could be very helpful, and I wouldn't be surprised if they could do it here.
This would be an attractive trade to make from an asset perspective, and the only con I can come up with here is that the moment you trade him away, you immediately have to start looking for another top-four defenseman. But, if you make this deal, you would have the assets to do it over the summer.
What are the pros and cons of retaining Ivan Provorov?
We'll start with the cons here. First, you don't get back any assets that would help you out down the road. Second, you're going to have to pay him, and I don't see him wanting to back too far off of his near-$7m AAV on his next contract. At 28 years old, he will want to cash in as much as possible.
Perhaps most importantly, what does this do to the roster moving forward? Denton Mateychuk is already playing his way into the NHL, and with Zach Werenski already on the roster, can you afford to have three left-shot puck movers on the same roster? That's a tough question for a team that already gives up too many goals.
From a "pros" perspective: hanging onto him kinda makes sense. While Mateychuk is playing stellar hockey, it's a big adjustment to the NHL. It could take him 2-3 years to really get up to speed and playing at his highest level. Keeping Provorov around would allow him the freedom to develop, without facing top competition every night. And, while they're all left shots, I think you could move any of them to the other side and not skip a beat.
My verdict: Why not do both?
How would you get the best of both worlds? Simple. Trade Ivan Provorov ahead of the deadline and get as many pieces as you can. But, while you're saying your goodbyes, give him a wink and a nod to let him know you'll talk to him in free agency.
You will have to bid against other teams, but if he loves Columbus enough, he'll be willing to sign here for a little bit less money. It's a gamble that may be worth taking. After all, if you can't get him back, you still have Denton Mateychuk.