The Columbus Blue Jackets continue to cling to slim playoff hopes as their season winds down. With 15 games left on the schedule, they will need to string together some wins to have any shot. But, whether they make the playoffs or not doesn't change one fact: they have to find ways to give up fewer goals.
Their team goals against average of 3.33 per game doesn't fall completely on the shoulders of its goaltending, however the position continues to be a big concern when we look in from the outside. Don Waddell has had nearly a full season to evaluate the position, and I'm not sure he's gained a lot of confidence in the two guys that are here.
Elvis Merzlikins has had a bit of a bounce back season, maybe even making an argument for himself as a 1b type of goaltender in the league. Improvement in the defensive zone has helped, but the team still has a long way to go to fully fix that issue. And, even with the improved defense, #90 is still prone to what seems like one bad goal against in nearly every start he makes. These goals have proven to be crippling over the years.
Even with his confidence higher and a team playing better (though again, not perfect) in front of him, Merzlikins' save percentage has him tied for 38th in the league amongst goalies who have played more than 17 games.
Why did I cut this off at 17 games? Because that's how many starts we've seen from Daniil Tarasov this season. It hasn't been great there, either. In fact, "Tarry" was so bad early in the year, that he was essentially unplayable until a two-game stint in the AHL in January allowed him to reset.
Since then, he's been much, much better. In fact, maybe good enough to fill the role as a backup - but, I would argue still not good enough to pencil him in as a starter here next season. Even though he's posted a 90.2% save percentage since that AHL visit, he's still posted a subpar 88.2% for the season. Like Merzlikins, maybe he's better suited as your 1b, or even just a #2 goaltender.
Digging deeper and looking at expected goals against, Tarasov is sitting a -4.4; while Merzlikins has improved to near even (-0.5) for the season, and neither of them are very good on high danger shots. All of this is a long-winded way of saying that neither guy is proving to be the answer in goal for the Blue Jackets. At this point in time, the team is going to have to cut ties with one or the other to clear a path for the guy who has outplayed them both.
Jet Greaves is on a one-way contract next season, and he's ready to play in the NHL.
The Blue Jackets are averaging 3.33 goals against per game, meaning on any given night they're being asked to score 4 or more goals to win. They have won 31 games this season, and have scored 4 or more goals in 23 of them. Their record when not scoring 4 goals is a paltry 8-26-7.
Of their 67 games played to date, they have only allowed fewer than 3 goals on 23 occasions. Despite only starting 6 NHL games, Jet Greaves is responsible for 3 of those; exactly half of his starts. And, two of those starts were against high flying Metropolitan Division foes: the Washington Capitals in a 2-1 overtime loss on December 12th; and the New Jersey Devils in a 2-1 loss on Monday night.
Greaves has better numbers across the board than both Merzlikins and Tarasov. His save percentage (90.5%), goals against average (2.83), goals saved above expected (+0.9) and high danger save percentage (94.1%) would all be comfortably inside of the top-20 league-wide. He just keeps battling, and that's the kind of goaltending this team needs.
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— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) March 18, 2025
Obviously, it's a limited sample size because Jet has only played in 6 NHL games this year. But, he's playing behind the same leaky CBJ defense and having more success. He's looked confident, calm, and continues to just try to make the next save. I would argue that he has more than made his case for being one of the two goaltenders on this roster next season.
Whether that's a share of the crease with Elvis Merzlikins, Daniil Tarasov, or even someone else; will remain to be seen. But, the team has to get better at this position to have more success. If they want to turn into a true contender next year, Jet Greaves should get every opportunity to step in and help win games.