The Columbus Blue Jackets have fallen flat over the last couple of weeks. Since their Stadium Series game at Ohio Stadium, they're 1-5-0 (2 points); now sitting on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff race. But it's not over for them yet, and there is still a path for them to make the playoffs.
There are 16 games left in the CBJ regular season, and the good news here is that 9 of them are at Nationwide Arena. The Jackets have been vastly better at home, sporting a record of 20-8-4 (accounting for 44 of their 70 standings points); as opposed to a road record of 11-19-4 (26 points).
Depending on how the balance of the season shakes out, the playoff line should be around 91-93 points. 94 points would almost guarantee them a playoff spot, in spite of tiebreakers owned by the other teams around them. So, in their final 16 games, they need to win at least 10 games to give themselves a realistic shot. They also need to get to overtime in some of their losses, if they can't exceed that number.
It's a long shot, but it is doable. The reality of the situation is, this team still controls its own destiny. They have two games in hand over the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils - who they play tonight. If they can find a way to beat the Devils on home ice tonight, they would be just 6 points out of third place in the Metropolitan Division, still with those two games in hand.
The favorable path here would be to close the gap on those two teams, because it's going to be tough to outpace the Ottawa Senators, who are now 7 points clear of the Jackets and with the same number of games played. And, don't look now, but the Montreal Canadiens are one point ahead as well. All of this ignores a logjam of teams sitting just behind the Jackets in the standings, still vying for a run as well.
They have to find their offense. Quickly.
All season long, the Jackets have been one of the NHL's most exciting offensive teams. The problem is, they have been scoring against conventional wisdom. Per Money Puck, they have scored 19 goals above expected this season - second in the NHL to only the Buffalo Sabres. That tells us that they have been getting more luck offensively than a lot of other teams. That luck appears to have dried up over the last couple of weeks.
On the flip side, they've also allowed 28 goals above expected - which is 4th-worst in the NHL. So, as the offense dries up, maybe the hockey Gods will allow us some luck on the defensive side of the puck. Though likely, if you've been around here long, that will not be the case.
Besides, this team can't rely on luck at this point in the year. They need to make their own. The games are only going to get tougher as the regular season winds down, and 13 of their final 16 are against teams either battling for playoff position; or still with hopes of getting back into contention.
The best thing for the Blue Jackets to do: get back to basics. When they are playing their brand of hockey, they are a load to handle at 5 on 5. In fact, I feel confident that they can beat almost any team in the league on any given night, as long as they can stay out of a special teams battle.
At this point in the season, every minute of every game matters. A win tonight changes the entire conversation around this team and gets us all hyped for the stretch run. A loss tonight? Well, that could end our aspirations altogether. So, all we can say is let's go Jackets.