The Columbus Blue Jackets were unable to improve their blue line either via trade or free agency this off-season. As a result, they quickly pivoted and will run things back after re-signing both Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov to contract extensions this week.
While most everyone was positive in response to Fabbro's somewhat team-friendly 4-year deal; the response has been mixed when it came to Provorov's massive 7-year extension. Let's go through the facts of how this all happened, and why we ended up here.
They simply had no other choice?
By all reports, GM Don Waddell and his staff were very busy over the last couple of weeks, seemingly poking around every single major player that was going to be available. But, they just couldn't find any deals that made sense for the Blue Jackets in the long-term.
I'm sure they would have loved to get Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders. But, the reported ask just became too much - from both an asset, and a contract extension perspective. They also reportedly checked in on Buffalo's Bowen Byram, New York's (Rangers) K'Andre Miller, and Calgary's Rasmus Andersson; all to no avail. It's likely that there were other trades discussed, as well. There are always things going on behind the scenes that we never hear about.
And, when the final hours were ticking down before free agency kicked off in earnest, it became evident that Aaron Ekblad would return to the Florida Panthers. I'm sure it was also made obvious that the other prized UFA blue liner (Vladislav Gavrikov) only had Broadway on his mind. Though, I'm sure no tampering took place here.
All of this meant that the NHL quickly went from having the most apparently volatile off-season in the salary cap era; to being a complete seller's market. Costs for even secondary pieces went way up, and many teams scrambled to retain players before they hit the open market.
It feels like, as the weekend went on, that was the case for Waddell. So, he found a way to come to common ground with both of his own pending UFA defensemen. This was the only way he could react to the rapidly changing market. At least, it's the only one that made sense and did not obliterate the progress this group made last year.
Good player to keep around.
From that perspective, keeping Ivan Provorov around actually does make sense. While the Blue Jackets didn't make the playoffs with him on the roster, it wasn't his fault. Ivan finished second on the team in total ice time, and was pretty productive while holding serve from a play driving point of view. He played against all competition and gave this team reliable minutes, while playing in all 82 games.
He's a good player, a legitimate top-four guy in this league. One that is extremely durable, generally well-liked by his teammates, and with plenty of experience to help lead the way.
When you take all of the facts into account, it makes sense that the team kept Provorov around. He's a legitimate top-four defenseman in this league, and those are not easy to find. In the end, it's always better to keep them if you can - even if they are the wrong style of player. But, it's better when the deal makes sense for your team. And, I'm not sure that this one does.
About the dollars...
In my opinion, the biggest issue with this contract is the cost and term. Provorov is what he is at this point: a #3 defenseman who can quarterback a #2 power-play unit. The problem is, he's now paid like a top pairing guy for the next seven years.
If they could have kept the term shorter, or even just kept his AAV in line with what a second pairing defenseman is worth; then I think this deal wouldn't have been scrutinized so much. I think Ivan is a valuable guy to keep around, but I like him a lot more in the $6.5 million or so range. This would give the team a lot more flexibility.
With the rising cap, it will probably become more palatable in time. But, if the Blue Jackets are one of the teams who are going to be running their organization with an internal cap, this one won't look so good no matter how far the cap rises. The Jackets now have more than $18 million tied up between Provorov and Zach Werenski for the next three years. At which point, Zach will demand a huge raise in his next deal.
That's a huge chunk of the cap spent on two defensemen who lead the charge for a team that gives up so much in its own end. This can all be washed away if the team finds another gear and becomes a contender.
In summary, one big question...
How does this team bring down its 267 goals against? Their 25th-place team defense is what kept them from making the playoffs last year. Even a middle of the pack defense probably gets them into the postseason, in a year where their offense was tied for 7th-best in the league with the much more highly touted Toronto Maple Leafs.
Instead of making sweeping changes on the back-end and in goal, the Jackets are running it back with a nearly identical roster. They will have the same coaching staff. The only notable changes are in the departures of seldom used defenseman Jordan Harris, and backup goaltender Daniil Tarasov - who can only be faulted to the extent of playing in 20 games last year.
Finding the answers will be hard, but one thing is certain: a big chunk of these questions will now fall onto the shoulders of Ivan Provorov. Whether that's fair or not, can be debated. But, that's life in the big city. Big contract means bigger expectations. It's on him to step his game up and help this team get to another level.
He's a talented, confident guy. Let's see where this takes us.