Blue Jackets general manager Don Waddell now has a full year under his belt with the franchise. That means that it's time to move on from evaluations and start making the hard decisions that will mold this team into a Stanley Cup contender. That work likely begins with his defense corps.
That's the natural place to start, anyway. The Jackets have just 5 NHL defensemen signed for next season, a list that includes a player entering his sophomore season of professional hockey (Denton Mateychuk), and a guy who is probably best suited as a #6/7 on a contender (Jake Christiansen). Not to mention an obvious third pairing option (Erik Gudbranson), and a guy who was buried in the coach's doghouse for much of the season (Damon Severson).
That leaves Zach Werenski, the team's obvious #1 defenseman, as the only sure bet top-4 guy on this roster. This could all change in the coming days and weeks however; depending on what Waddell and his staff decide to do with pending unrestricted free agents Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro. Bringing one or both of them back would give us this team's makeup for next year.
I have a hunch here, however. I think the Jackets are looking to overhaul their back end entirely. Waddell has hinted at such, and after all, with both of these guys being pending UFAs: why haven't either of them been extended? The Jackets have plenty of cap space to fit both of them back in. They battled for a wild card spot all year and very well could just run it back next season with the same group.
But, because they were so competitive, the bar was raised this season. Battling for a wild card spot isn't what this team should be aiming for, and locking up two guys who are probably best suited on the second pairing, would tie up every open job on the blue line - without correcting any of its issues. If you want to take that next step and become a team that pushes for more than squeaking into the playoffs; something has to change.
What is the makeup of a Stanley Cup winning defense corps?
The goal for Waddell and the Blue Jackets is to build the kind of team that competes for a Stanley Cup every season. You can look at recent teams and see differences amongst the makeups of their forward groups. Some are big and physical; while others are speedy and highly skilled. You can find teams that had elite goaltending - and others who did not.
But, when you look at defense corps, there is a clear formula for success. Put into the easiest of terms, you need a top-4 that can roll out against any competition in all situations. This is important because you don't get the matchup advantage on the road, and you have to be able to win playoff games on the road to win a Cup. The bottom pairing is important as well, but the truth here is that they basically need to just hold serve and play low even hockey.
When we look at the Blue Jackets and the hard facts of the situation, the question becomes: if they bring back Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov, do they have that top-4? I would say, probably not.
The biggest parts of the formula that would be missing would be a shutdown pairing, and a whole lot of size. When you get into the playoffs, the games get tighter checking and more physical. The games get extremely hard for defensemen in particular, with every forward on the opposing team finishing every single check.
This is one of the biggest reasons why nearly every Cup winning team in recent memory, has a defense corps that is larger than the league average size. The Blue Jackets, as they are currently assembled, are not only undersized - but they lack any kind of true shutdown defenseman. They don't even have one, let alone two.
All things considered, Waddell may be better served to choose to keep only one of Provorov or Fabbro beyond this most recent season. This would allow him to go out and find someone to balance out his top-4. Preferably, someone with some size and defensive zone prowess. Those guys aren't easy to come by, but they do exist (imagine if we still had this guy?).
Does it matter which hand they shoot with?
The constant discussion I hear in the media or even on social media, is right shot defenseman. Everyone seems to covet these "rare" commodities, especially the bigger ones who can skate. But if they are so valuable and in such high demand, why didn't Damon Severson find a full-time role with the Jackets this year?
This got me thinking, and I put it to a poll on X yesterday. The results say that having an equal number of right and left hand shooters, is pretty important to most:
So, I took the time to dig through the last decade of Stanley Cup winners, to see how important it is to have right hand shooting defensemen. The results were that, well, you typically need 2-3 of them.
In the last decade, five teams that won the Cup featured two right shot defensemen in their top-6. Another four teams had three right shot defensemen; while only one - the 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins - had a single right shot. And, that was because Kris Letang missed the entire playoffs that year.
With the speed of today's NHL, this proves that having guys working from their strong side makes it easier to win games. Or at least, easier get the puck out of your own defensive zone. This is especially true within each team's top-4; getting the puck up the ice equals success. Again, every single one of these teams rolled out a mostly low-event third pairing. Add size into the equation, and that's the formula for success.
Taking that all into account, I think the Jackets are two defensemen away from being true Cup contenders. One could make the argument that Fabbro can be part of that solution because he's a right shot, though his size (6'0", 190 pounds) works against him. Especially when you might have to use him on a second pair with another undersized guy - Denton Mateychuk - who was arguably this team's best defender this year.
With all of that said, if this team wants to truly contend, I'm not sure where Ivan Provorov fits in. Unless he wants to sign cheap and be part of that low event third pairing. I don't see that happening though, and if history is much indication; Waddell is better off using that money to find a right shot for his top pairing, to play alongside Zach Werenski.
However it shakes down, I suspect that adding size to the blue line, is going to be high on Don's priority list this summer. It will be interesting to follow this team's moves to get that done.