Adam Fantilli will be entering his third NHL campaign this fall. This will burn off the last year of his entry level contract, which means the Blue Jackets need to figure out which direction they want to go with their budding young star's next deal.
It's hard to believe we are already at this point. The Jackets picked Fantilli third overall at the 2023 NHL Draft, after one of the worst seasons in franchise history. In a rare stroke of luck, they saw the player they may have coveted the most fall into their laps with the third pick, and thus far he has been everything we hoped he would be.
Despite missing almost half of his rookie season due to a gruesome leg injury, "Mo" has seemingly found his way. He has 131 NHL games under his belt, with 43 goals and 81 points in that span. 24 of those goals (and 39 points) came in the final 44 games of last season. If that's any indication of the future, the Jackets have finally found their long-sought after top line center.
Adam truly has it all. He's one of the best skaters on the team. He's competitive. He loves to skate with the puck, and can fire shots off the rush like few others in the league. At 6'2" and around 200 pounds, he's also capable of playing a physical game. Put it all together, and it's not hard to see him becoming a dominant transitional player in this league. He's a star in the making. Stars don't come cheap.
Welcome to the NHL, Ryan Leonard.
One contract comp really makes sense.
This isn't a situation the Blue Jackets organization is familiar with. Frankly, they have never had a player of this caliber to deal with. Big, strong, capable young centers are the most highly coveted archetype around the NHL. So, this isn't the place for them to try to pinch pennies. Adam Fantilli is going to cost them some money.
I wouldn't call it a "blank check" scenario, but I am of the belief that it would best suit the team to get him signed for as long as they can. They can sign him to an 8-year contract extension until the next CBA takes effect after next season. He's actually eligible to extend right now (as of July 1st), and if the team could convince him to extend before the season starts, they might save some money - and gain some term.
If they don't extend him now, I only see that cost continuing to climb. For that reason, I think Fantilli's camp would want to wait until after next season to maximize his value. If he continues to produce at a 40+ goal pace as he did in the second half of last season; this contract is going to skyrocket even more.
Players also seem to covet shorter term deals now, to maximize their career earnings. It's possible that Fantilli may only want to take 4 or 5 year terms, to give him more cracks at the whip. That's the route taken by Auston Matthews in Toronto. Instead of signing for 8 years, he took a 5 year term out of his ELC - then extended for four more seasons at a raise of around $2 million per year.
For these reasons, it's hard to speculate on term. But, I think we can dial in the cost a little bit based on comparable players. My favorite player comp for Fantilli has always been Jack Eichel, and that's also the best recent contract comp I can come up with here. Like Fantilli, Eichel was a very high pick (2nd overall) by a team that was trying to find its way and build around him.
Through his first two seasons in the league, Eichel played in 142 games, scoring 48 goals and 113 points. Overall, more productive than Fantilli, though comparable from a goal scoring perspective. Jack's second contract in the league was an 8-year, $80 million dollar extension that he signed right near the start of his third season.
It would be easy to say that Fantilli should sign for the same AAV, but it's not that simple. The salary cap will have gone up by more than $20 million dollars by the time his extension kicks in. Call it a cost of living increase. So, we have to look at the cap percentage to dial it in more accurately. Eichel's deal paid him 12.58% against the cap.
Final verdict: he's going to be expensive.
If the Jackets were to match that cap percentage, Adam's long-term contract would come in at 8 years, with an AAV of roughly $13 million per year. More likely, I think it comes in a little bit lower. I would make an educated guess of around $11.5-$12m per year. There may be some sticker shock if that's the case, but I think he will be worth every penny. This is the kind of guy you can build your entire team around.
It took them 23 years to finally get their hands on a young, true #1 center. If the goal is to compete for a Stanley Cup, the next step is to get him to stay in Central Ohio for the long haul.