Would the Blue Jackets benefit more from an Elvis Merzlikins buyout, or a trade?
One of the biggest pieces of business for the Columbus Blue Jackets this summer: what to do with Elvis Merzlikins. If they do decide to move on, what makes the most sense?
I would be lying if I said the Blue Jackets have not come to a crossroads with their #1 goaltender. The fact of the matter is, things just are not working out in Columbus with Elvis Merzlikins.
The bad news here is, he's signed for three more seasons at a cap hit of $5.4 million dollars. He's the 11th highest paid goaltender in the NHL, if we're counting inactive Montreal goaltender Carey Price.
His contract would be fine if he were posting the same .916% save percentage he had when he put pen to paper. In fact, he would be quite the bargain at that rate. The Jackets would also have a few more wins in their pockets.
Since signing that 5-year extension in September of 2021 however, his save percentages for the next three seasons are: .907% (still fine here), .876%, and .897%.
He has struggled to find consistency, whether it's from injuries or other factors. So, what should they do?
I think Elvis would be the very first person to tell you that his last couple of seasons of results are just not good enough.
It's not that he doesn't care. In fact, my feeling is that it's entirely the opposite. He cares too much, wearing his heart on his sleeve each and every day.
That's certainly been a big part of the problem. An early goal against, a player standing in his crease, or a late hack to the glove have all set him off and cost this team more goals against.
The Jackets knew what they were getting when they signed Merzlikins to this extension. The outspoken goaltender was always quick to remind everyone that he wasn't here to be the backup.
But since signing this contract extension, he's been passed up by nearly every other goaltender that the team has played. This season, Daniil Tarasov and Jet Greaves both posted .908% save percentages - behind the same terrible Blue Jacket team.
Even waiver pickup Spencer Martin was producing closer to Merzlikins than we should have been comfortable with.
And to be honest, that Blue Jacket team looked a lot more comfortable in front of all of them, than they did in front of Merzlikins most nights. That's not good.
All of this means that one of the biggest pieces of business for the new GM of the Jackets is figuring out what to do with their goaltending situation. Let's look at the three options at hand.
The first option here is the most obvious one: they could just hold onto Elvis and keep hoping he bounces back.
In my opinion, this shouldn't - no, let's be clear - this cannot happen. That may seem like a drastic statement, but neither player nor team benefits from this scenario.
The Jackets went as far as hiring a new goaltending coach last year, to help Elvis get his game back. He did improve slightly, but was still nowhere near the level he needs to be to serve as a starting goaltender in this league.
Elvis needs a change of scenery. it's certainly not all his fault, but the Blue Jackets need the cap space, and they played like a better team with the other goaltenders here.
The second option: an Elvis trade.
If you can find a suitor to take on this Elvis Merzlikins contract in whole, take whatever they're willing to give up and run.
Freeing up $5.4 million in cap space would be extremely valuable to this team. The problem here: I just don't think that's possible.
The Jackets will have to eat some of this money to move Elvis. If that's 50%, that means paying him a $2.6m AAV to play somewhere else for the next three seasons. Not ideal, but it might be worth it to have a fresh start.
The good news with his contract is, his actual dollars do start to come down at the end of the contract. Next season, he's paid $6 million, then it goes down to $5.525, and finally $4.225 in the final year. So, an acquiring team may want to take a shot on a guy who has shown that he can play in this league.
Just looking around the contending teams this year, there are a few that could use goaltending help (Colorado, hello. Paging the Avalanche). I do think there will be a market, but what makes it tough is that there is a pretty nice crop of free agent goaltenders available this summer. Which means option three comes into play.
Regardless the market, I don't see a huge return coming for Merzlikins. At 50% retained, I think the Jackets would be lucky to land a middle round pick. Or, perhaps they could take a bad contract the other way and call it even. Just don't expect any kind of massive package to come our way.
Let's look at the final option, and our verdict.
The third option: an Elvis buyout.
The benefit here is that the Blue Jackets save $5.25 million dollars on Elvis' contract. That's no small amount of money.
The bad news is, they'll have to pay him for six years. But, it's at a more reasonable cap hit than a 50% retained trade, which is helpful for flexibility.
A buyout cap hit would go like this for those six years: $1.15, $1.625, $2.95, then $1.75 million for each of the last three years.
With the league-wide cap due to go up $4 million this summer, that's all very easy to fit in. But, will ownership want to be on the hook for $10.95 million dollars to get rid of Elvis?
We will probably find out soon, rather than later. I don't see the team staying quiet about this situation this summer, whether Elvis is staying or going. It will be a story to follow.
In any case, the Jackets should feel pretty comfortable heading into next season with a tandem of Daniil Tarasov and Jet Greaves. Both guys proved capable this year. These guys can play, but the team would be smart to cushion their landing with an experienced veteran in case of injury.
Final verdict: a trade makes the most sense.
Personally, I think they should try every trade avenue they can find. Whether it's an ugly contract swap, or a 50% retained trade for a draft pick in return; they should try to give him a chance to play out his time somewhere else.
The main reason here is, it allows for more flexibility. This team won't be ready for contention for the next few years, so they can absorb the higher cap hit if necessary. Then, it will be fully off the books when they are ready to push for a Stanley Cup.
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