The Argument for and Against the Blue Jackets Tanking the Rest of the Season
As we approach the trade deadline, one big question arises. Should the Blue Jackets throw this season away and try to improve their draft lottery odds?
I'll start this article off with an obvious comment: this is a lost season for the Blue Jackets. They're likely to sell off a piece or two at the deadline, and they will miss the playoffs.
With that out of the way, this doesn't have to be a continuance of their losing tradition. It is possible to play well for the rest of this season, and have that structure carry over into next year.
This is the first part of the argument against tanking.
The players that are here, for the most part, are the guys who are going to be here next year and beyond. Notably, when this team should be improving and realistically making a push towards competing for greater goals.
The cold, hard, honest fact of the matter is that this team has improved this season. No, it's not as much of an improvement we wanted from them. But, after a 9-game losing streak in November, they have been playing better hockey.
They're on pace for roughly 69 points, which would be a 10-point improvement over last season. Does that signify enough growth, considering the way the roster was treated last summer? Hardly. But, they have certainly improved since October and November.
I came up with two more reasons this team should absolutely not tank.
First, look at the standings. The Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks look like they may never win another hockey game. Each team has 37 points.
If they continue their points percentage through the end of this season, they'll only end up with 48-49 points, respectively. The Jackets (52 points) could lose every game from here on out, and still not have the best lottery odds.
And let's not forget about those odds. Even if you do finish with the worst record, you have a greater chance of not drafting first overall. That's the way the NHL Draft Lottery works.
We saw it last year first-hand, when the Jackets were jumped by Chicago and wound up drafting third overall. Nothing is guaranteed.
Now, the argument for tanking? Let's take a look.
The prize of this year's NHL Draft is Macklin Celebrini. He has tremendous potential, and would give the Jackets one of the league's best young combinations down the middle.
Obviously, if you aren't going to make the playoffs, your best bet is to finish as low as possible and draft as high as you possibly can.
In this year's draft, there is a clear cut #1 prospect: Boston University superstar Macklin Celebrini. It's basically consensus at this point that he'll be the first player plucked from the draft, and I don't see that changing.
What is different from last year, however, is the drop-off after #1. Last year, there were a handful of players available that can become "face of the franchise" types. The Jackets landed their own, in Adam Fantilli.
This year, there is a handful of players - I'll say, 5-7 of them - who won't be that type of franchise-altering prospect; but could, in time, develop into top-line types.
So, if you don't hit the jackpot and pick first overall, you could get a really good player.
With all of that aside, my stance on this whole situation? Tanking is a bad idea. This draft doesn't have an Adam Fantilli sitting third overall.
In fact, if nothing changed and they picked fourth overall, I would debate that they could still end up with the second best player in the draft. I don't see one or two prospects that stand out as "must haves" aside from Celebrini, and they're already cemented outside of those odds. The best they can hope for is finishing with the league's third-worst record.
And even that's a tough ask because, honestly, they just aren't as bad as Anaheim. They will probably even pass Arizona, and maybe Ottawa.
What will matter with this class is development. If you can develop whatever player you pick better than the other guys, I think you'll have a better piece in the long run. Even if you don't have a top-two or three pick.
More importantly, I think this team needs to show the young players already on the roster how to win hockey games. We can't complain that they're always terrible, and then ask them to be terrible for just a little while longer.
We also can't ask them to lose out this season, and come into next season ready to be a 95+ point team. Whatever player they draft this year, unless it's Celebrini, is going to take two, or three, or more years before they're ready.
At that point, will we still be complaining about them being terrible because they built a losing culture? Or, would we rather bring this prospect into a winning environment, and have them be the missing piece? The latter would be my preference.
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