We've all seen the complaints by now. If you haven't, let me know where your rock is so I can hide under it for awhile too. Today, I'm asking the hockey world: just how bad is the Sean Monahan contract for the Blue Jackets?
The moment Monahan signed his 5-year, $27.5 million dollar contract with the Blue Jackets, the hockey world began picking it apart. I'm here today with proof that this deal is right at market value. In fact, I was astonished at how precise the numbers were when I started to dive into it.
If we're looking solely at centers, this contract is dead smack in the middle of market value. The Jackets did not overpay for Monahan in free agency (though, if you want to debate the term, that's fair). It's important to compare his contract only to other centers because, well, centers have a higher market value.
Per the folks at PuckPedia, there are 44 centers in the NHL who are paid an AAV between $4.5 million and $6.5 million dollars. Monahan's deal obviously fits right into the middle of the pack here, which is the reason I set the parameters the way I did.
If you check out that list, you'll notice some obvious standouts. At the very top are Martin Necas, Brayden Schenn, and Claude Giroux; all making an AAV at $6.5 million dollars. The arguments for or against these contracts make perfect sense. But, all of them are in different scenarios than Monahan and the Jackets.
Necas has shown flashes of top line potential, but has yet to put it all together consistently enough to get paid like a #1 center. He scored 53 points in 77 games last season. This is a pretty expensive bridge contract (a "prove-it" deal), simply put.
Schenn and Giroux are both sitting on legacy contracts. Schenn has a massive 8-year deal in place with the Blues, which came to him as a result of a Stanley Cup win. He's their captain, but scored only 46 points last season and certainly needs to be better if they are going to compete for a playoff spot.
Giroux was signed by the Ottawa Senators to a three-year deal after an impressive career spent mostly with the Philadelphia Flyers. He's leaned on to play the wily veteran role in their top-six, but still plays a productive game, having scored 64 points while playing in all 82 games for the Sens last season.
In terms of actual contracts (factoring in term and age), the two closest comparables are both from the Detroit Red Wings: Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher. The players are in the same age range, and both have 5-year deals signed with a rebuilding team. Copp is at the higher end ($5.625m AAV), and Compher just below ($5.1m AAV).
Last year, Copp posted 13 goals and 33 points in 79 games; while Compher scored 19 goals and 48 points in 77 games. I will state my opinion: I'd rather have Monahan at this cap hit and term, than either of those players.
On the next slide, we'll look at the bottom end of this scale, and compare how Sean Monahan's contract and productivity fits into it.