5 bold offseason predictions for the Columbus Blue Jackets
As we dive further into the offseason, the Blue Jackets are heading towards a new era. How dramatic will the changes be? Here are a few things that could happen this summer.
As teams start to drop out of the NHL playoffs, everyone is quickly noting their favorite candidate's availability for the vacant GM job in Columbus. This leads me right into my first bold prediction.
Bold prediction #1: the new GM comes from way off the radar.
I'm sure you've heard the names, if you follow the Blue Jackets with any regularity. Eric Tulsky. Mark Hunter. Mathieu Darche. Jeff Gorton. There are a few others, also, but you get the point.
I'll step out on a limb and say that the Blue Jackets aren't hiring any of these guys. I think they're going to hire someone who isn't being talked about very much, or at all.
All along, team President John Davidson has talked about finding the right fit to build a culture. They've cast a wide net in this search, and are looking at every possible scenario.
Does this sound familiar at all?
It should, because this is exactly what happened last summer as they searched for a new head coach. And, in the end, they hired someone that nobody was talking about. Let's just hope that it works out better this time around.
It has to work, because if not, oh man... we're in trouble.
Look for this hire to be someone who comes in and says all the right things about building that winning culture. Since I think this one will be off the radar, I'll refrain from mentioning any names.
Bold prediction #2: that new GM tries to acquire some extra draft capital to spend this year.
The Jackets are loaded with depth pieces, but are lacking some top end players. One thing that needs to happen: clearing out some of the fluff.
Whether it's trading away a redundant player from the lineup, or perhaps giving one of the younger players who can't seem to make the jump from the AHL a chance somewhere else; I think they have to start weeding out this logjam.
Now, I don't expect them to trade, say, Boone Jenner in exchange for draft picks. But, a veteran like Justin Danforth, or an RFA like Alexandre Texier, could net this team some added bullets for this summer's draft.
As it stands, they currently own six picks (one in round 1, two in round 3, then one each in rounds 4, 5, and 6). This hinges on what they decide to do with their own second round pick - it's traded to Philadelphia conditionally as part of the Ivan Provorov trade.
Should they choose to keep that pick this year, they'll forfeit next year's second rounder to the Flyers.
In any case, I think this team's scouting staff probably knows that this is their last run at the draft, as things are right now. They would like to have as many cracks at the whip as possible, and I think the new GM will have some guys advocating for more picks.
Bold prediction #3: the RFA situation goes dramatically different than we expected.
The Blue Jackets enter this summer with approximately $23 million in cap space. They have 11 restricted free agents to straighten out.
Four of these guys are minor league players, and won't move the needle too much at the NHL level: Jet Greaves, Marcus Bjork, Jake Christiansen, and Tyler Angle.
But at the NHL level, there are some big names on the RFA list: Kent Johnson, Alexandre Texier, Kirill Marchenko, Cole Sillinger, Yegor Chinakhov, Alexander Nylander, and Jake Bean.
You know what all of these guys have in common? (Well, aside from Nylander) ... they are all Jarmo Kekalainen guys. Which means there is no loyalty here. No personal connection.
If the incoming GM looks at this roster and sees any of these guys as redundant or expendable, they could be moved. Maybe they just don't fit into the planned system?
Or, maybe this GM sits down with each individual player, and decides that some of them don't fit into the culture they are trying to build.
At any rate, even with the available cap space, I have a hard time seeing the Jackets holding on to all 11 of these guys. Thinking back to that logjam we have seen over the last couple of years, moving on from one or more of these players could help resolve it.
Bold prediction #4: a player we covet as a "core piece" is dealt away.
The Jackets are a team loaded with young, skilled players. But they have not yet found line combinations that work on a consistent enough basis. They also lose a lot of puck battles.
They still lack a true top-two line center. This is even assuming that Adam Fantilli can take big steps forward for the team this year - they will still need another one, in my opinion.
Also, even after last summer's acquisitions, I think they could use one more NHL defenseman. I'm not talking a depth piece like Andrew Peeke or Jake Bean. I mean an experienced NHL player who can come in and eat up some hard minutes.
We are all tired of seeing this team go into the season with the youngest roster in the league. So, one of the tasks at hand if they are going to compete: using these young pieces as bait to land a big fish.
Look, the Blue Jackets didn't fire their GM to keep tunneling into a rebuild. They're hoping to start turning a corner towards contention.
And, even though I think they are still not ready to compete for a playoff spot next year, they have to be better. They cannot come back with another bottom-5 finish.
So, at this point in their story, I think it's time to start sorting out which young players are going to be here into the team's window of contention - and which ones are not.
The ones who aren't fitting into the future puzzle could be shopped around, to try to fill one of this team's roster holes.
To be honest, it may not happen this summer. It could go into next season. But, at some point, it feels like this team is going to make a ground-shifting trade. Someone's favorite player is getting sent out to shake things up and change this team's momentum.
The only two questions I have are: Who is getting dealt? And when?
Bold prediction #5: Pascal Vincent is retained as head coach.
Whether he's the right fit who can push this team to success or not, we can all debate. I'm not fully sold yet, personally. But, I think the team has invested too much into Pascal Vincent to move on from him after this last season.
Thrust into the job just days before training camp, Vincent was thrown between a rock and a hard place; with a young roster that was built to maybe, at its very best, finish middle of the pack.
I'm not sure Scotty Bowman was taking this team to the playoffs this year. The whole season was set up for failure, and that's exactly what happened. Vincent certainly shares some of that blame, but we can't say for sure that he had a fair chance behind the bench.
Look, it's obvious that he wasn't their first choice as head coach. I would argue that he probably wasn't even in the top-3 or 5; because he would have been an easy, inexpensive promotion last summer.
They wanted someone different. But, with that said, they've invested multiple years into this team with him working behind the bench in some capacity. He's still a young coaching asset in this league, so they don't want him to walk away without a true evaluation.
And, let's not forget: ownership is probably in no hurry to pay two head coaches for the second consecutive season.
For all of these reasons, I think Vincent gets one more season to right the ship. We may look back upon things and hate it, but at least then we'll know for sure.
The last thing I want, is for the Jackets to fire him now, and have him pop up somewhere else in a couple of seasons, coaching a team deep into the playoffs. We've felt that sting before.
There's always the possibility that the team will surprise us next season, even with Pascal behind the bench. In my opinion, the real change behind the bench needs to start at the assistant coach level first.
In any case, we'll look back at this article at some point near the start of next season, to see how our bold predictions turned out.
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