The Columbus Blue Jackets are a different team this year. From top to bottom, the entire organization feels like a breath of fresh air as the team finds itself right in the playoff mix at the quarter mark of the season. Lots of people deserve credit here, but recently in particular, tough guy Mathieu Olivier has emerged as part of this team's new identity.
Mathieu is an important player to recognize early on, because he's a pending unrestricted free agent whose contract expires after this season. Before the year started, he was probably on the cusp of being allowed to walk. But now, 23 games into this season, I think he's closer to earning a letter on his jersey than he is to becoming a free agent. How did we get here?
The Blue Jackets gave up very little to get him...
Just before the 2022 NHL Draft, the Jackets traded a 4th round pick to the Nashville Predators for Olivier - a pick the Preds dealt away the very next day for another future pick. The team felt obliged to add some toughness to their lineup after seeing their young players get pushed around as the 2021-22 season came towards its end. At the time, it felt like a minor trade for a guy who would only be in the lineup on required occasions.
Here we are, two seasons later, and Olivier is far more than just a pugilist. He's arguably become the undisputed heavyweight champion of the NHL this season, while also playing in a greater role with the Jackets. Through 23 games, he has already set his career high in goals (7), and with 10 points is well on his way towards a new career high (15).
The Jackets are using him on the penalty kill, and at even strength he's played mostly third line minutes. Not many of us saw Mathieu becoming such an integral part of this young roster. He's more than just a guy who protects Kent Johnson or Adam Fantilli from being run into the boards. He's a guy who deserves to be here long term.
What kind of contract should he get?
It's hard to find any reason the Blue Jackets should not keep Olivier around beyond this year. Unless he wants a change of scenery (which does not seem to be the case), it should be relatively easy to find common ground here.
In fact, there is a similar situation we can point to if we're looking for a prediction on his next contract. The Vegas Golden Knights just extended a bottom-six winger to a three-year, $2.5m AAV deal. Brett Howden isn't quite the pugilist that Olivier is. But he is a bigger bodied checking line winger, who is having a career year offensively.
Knowing that we usually have to overpay for players in Columbus - and coupling that with the fact that Vegas is a tax free state - I think common ground here would be somewhere in the 3-4 year range, with an AAV of $3 million per year. With the salary cap set to rise substantially next season and beyond, this is a no brainer; and the team would be wise to lock up its physical spark plug soon, rather than later.