Over the last couple of weeks, we have seen three teams lock up their young franchise centers to new contracts. And then, there was one. Adam Fantilli is the last big RFA holdout from a group of comparable players. The other guys' deals should give us enough hints to know where Mo's deal will land.
It started with the offer sheet.
Before the summer was fully under way, Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell gave us the first clue: nobody wants to go first. Indeed, as the offseason wore on, that became pretty obvious. Each player seemed to be waiting for the market to set, before signing their new contract.
That all changed on July 3rd, when the Philadelphia Flyers inked Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson to a 5-year, $90 million dollar offer sheet. This not only set the market higher than most expected-it blew the market out of the water.
Eventually, the Ducks matched, retaining their #1 center at an AAV that is probably at least $4 million dollars higher than it should be. How do we know that? Well, because Connor Bedard signed his 5-year deal at a $15 million dollar AAV.
Of the players taken at the 2023 NHL Draft, he is certainly the player who should have the highest value contract. Not only because he was the first player taken. It's because he's been the best in the NHL so far.
Today, we got another comp, with San Jose signing franchise center Macklin Celebrini to a 5-year extension of his own. That AAV comes in at a record breaking $18.8 million dollars, which makes sense. Macklin is already, arguably, the best player in the league.
So, all of that leads me to the point of this article: it's not all that hard to see where Adam Fantilli is going to land with his new deal. And, I think it will make a lot of sense for both him and the Blue Jackets.
Mo's next deal will be the largest by AAV in CBJ history.
Lets get the obvious part out of the way, because there is a trend here that cannot be ignored. All of the players we just mentioned signed 5-year contracts. I believe this is going to be the new norm for elite talent like this.
That gets them all a massive raise over their ELCs, and takes them into their mid-20s. Which means that they get another crack at the whip in less time than the max-term would allow. And, potentially a third crack at the whip before they exit their prime.
Taking that into account, along with the other AAVs thrown around, and I think Aaron Portzline is pretty spot on when he mentions a $13-$14 million dollar cap hit. For argument's sake, lets split the difference and say 5 years, $13.5 million dollars for Adam.
By AAV, that would be the largest contract in Blue Jackets history. In total dollars, it would only be surpassed by the late Johnny Gaudreau's $68.25 million dollar deal, signed back in 2022. Any more of a cap hit, and Mo might pass that by as well.
This is the going rate for elite #1 centers. I think Adam will live up to this kind of contract, just fine. We should just be very thankful that he hasn't bit on any offer sheets. I'm sure he has seen a few thrown around.
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