Five Bold Predictions for the 2023-24 Columbus Blue Jackets

This week in our Friday Feature, we’re getting bold. Five times, in fact, with our five bold predictions for the 2023-24 Columbus Blue Jackets.

After a year where the team finished 31st in the overall standings, the season begins with a lot of new hope. They’ll have a new head coach, revamped their defense, and even have a legitimate future #1 center in the works. The future is certainly brighter, and real question isn’t whether or not this team can be a contender – in my opinion, it’s actually, how soon can they contend?

It probably won’t be this year, and that’s fine. Still, they should be a lot more fun to watch this season than they have been over the last couple. The offense should be strong, the defense should be more able to help keep pucks out of their own net; and they’ll have some exciting young players to keep an eye on. With that said, let’s run through our five bold predictions for the 2023-24 Columbus Blue Jackets.

Bold Prediction #1: Elvis Merzlikins comes out of his funk, bounces back and plays like a #1 goaltender…

For anything spectacular to happen with this team, they need better goaltending this season. Last year is one that almost everyone involved with the franchise would love to write off, including Elvis Merzlikins. But it wasn’t entirely his fault that this team surrendered more than four goals per game – he played in only 30 of them.

Which leads me to the main point here: the issue with Elvis last season was not based on talent or ability. The issue with Elvis last season was between his ears, and it’s up to everyone around the team to help pull him out of that funk. How many times did we see him make saves last year, only to give up goals anyways because there was really no help around him? It was more than a few, to say the least. I think that nearly any goaltender would have been discouraged after so long. Combined with the off-ice tragedy that we’re all well aware of, it was just too much for him to overcome.

We can’t fault him alone for last year’s failures. He was part of it, yes. But he didn’t even play in half of the games, so it felt like he could never really gain consistent footing. And it would have been near impossible behind what was, in reality, a low-tier AHL defense corps on most nights. I think he’ll bounce back this year behind a more experience group on defense and new coaching; and establish himself as a middle-tier #1 goaltender in the NHL.

That’s how he’s paid, and that’s really all this team needs to be successful. This is a more talented group that should be able to score some goals and mask a lot of the other shortcomings. There’s no longer a need for an elite #1 goaltender like Sergei Bobrovsky to keep the Jackets afloat in the standings. Elvis doesn’t need to be Bob; he just needs to tune out the noise and be Elvis Merzlikins.

Bold Prediction #2: The Columbus Blue Jackets have six players exceed 60 points this season…

Alright, I’ll be the first to admit that this one is really bold. They’ve never had more than three 60-point scorers in the same season, but I think this year they can double that number for a few reasons.

First, they have arguably the greatest playmaker they’ve ever had in Johnny Gaudreau. One could make a case for Artemi Panarin here, and it’s a fair argument, but we’re really splitting hairs. Both guys are elite play drivers. But second to my point; while they had an elite playmaker in Panarin before, what they did not have was a lot of high-end skill around him. And, they had the game’s most strict defensive minded head coach. All of that is different this year.

The best players surrounding Panarin were players like Cam Atkinson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Josh Anderson, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Dubinsky. All really good two-way hockey players, but let’s be honest, aside from Atkinson and Dubois, are any of those guys really suited for top-six minutes?

Now, the Jackets may have some question marks throughout the lineup, but one thing that I don’t think we can question is the overall skill level. Gaudreau is helped by Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Patrik Laine, and incoming Adam Fantilli. That’s five names without even including the upside the team brings from the back end with guys like Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov and Adam Boqvist. Jack Roslovic brings a lot of skill, as long as he doesn’t try to do too much with the puck. Crafty middle-sixer Alexandre Texier is coming back more experienced too.

The high-end skill is there, the depth is better, and there will be support from the back end. In theory, this should all work; but part of their success will depend on the way Pascal Vincent coaches them. He says he wants to have a hard working team that puts in a lot of effort, which is great. But, will that include a set offensive system? One thing we can’t overlook is the fact that Patrik Laine scored 44 goals with Vincent as an assistant coach in Winnipeg. Patrik is really excited to have him behind the bench, so maybe there’s some magic here.

By the way, those six players that I think can exceed 60 points? Gaudreau, Johnson, Laine, Fantilli, Werenski, and one of Marchenko or Boone Jenner. I also think Boqvist will be close, if he stays healthy. All of this assumes good health, in fact – that’s the most important factor in my opinion. Any lack of skill isn’t going to hold them back.

Bold Prediction #4: The Jackets acquire a big name talent from a cap-stretched team…

This one comes from Matthew Duffey as well, and I think he’s onto something. We’re not talking about making a trade for a third pairing defenseman or a fourth line forward here. We’re talking about a bold move that shakes up the core of the team and changes their competitive window.

As far as who that player is, well, that’s a topic I’m always leery to touch on. But, one quick look at the NHL’s salary cap compliances tells you that roughly half of the teams in the NHL are in some cap predicaments – even before the regular season kicks off.

Columbus is not one of those teams. In fact, they find themselves near the bottom of the league in regards to their cap situation, with some of their most important players both locked up longer-term – and some of their young stars not yet off of their entry-level deals.

Now, they’ll have some very important pieces of business to take care of next summer, including prominent RFAs Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Alexandre Texier, Cole Sillinger, Yegor Chinakhov, Jake Bean, and Nick Blankenburg; but the cap is expected to take a big jump next season, and they should be in a pretty good situation that allows them to keep most or all of these players, if they so choose.

The other side to this equation? The Jackets have a glut of players vying for roster spots this year. We counted 28 players in serious contention for 23 spots; which means the club is going to almost certainly be risking the loss of a player like Emil Bemstrom or Liam Foudy via the waiver wire. It’s entirely possible that they’ll pass through, especially with so many teams facing cap constraints. But, is it possible that the Jackets could look to package some of this depth, to try and upgrade their roster elsewhere?

It certainly doesn’t seem to be out of the question. Jarmo Kekalainen is a bold general manager whose job is very much on the line after the Mike Babcock scandal; and who has made splashes in the past and acquired players that nobody saw becoming available. Seth Jones and Artemi Panarin are two that immediately come to mind; if he could secure a top end piece like that for pennies on the dollar, he would be foolish not to act.

Bold Prediction #5: The Blue Jackets will finish fourth in the Metropolitan Division standings. But, they’ll still miss the playoffs…

Our season prediction had the Jackets finishing with a 39-36-7 record (85 points). We may be aiming a little bit high with that, based on the team’s play last season. But I would argue that this team was better on paper last season, than where it finished. Keeping our fingers crossed for better health; if you combine that with the help they’ll receive down the middle and on the blue line, is it hard to see this team improving by nearly 30 points in the standings?

Team prediction: 39-36-7 (85pts), 270GF, 250GA … I think this would be more than an acceptable season. That’s a 26-point improvement over last year, which may seem dramatic and unachievable…

A lot of this hinges on the team meshing coming out of that Mike Babcock scandal unscathed – in fact, not just unscathed, they’ll need to be stronger than they were last year. Even more of it may hinge on the play between the pipes. But the talent is there, more than ever, and everything we’re hearing from the players makes it sound like they are out to prove the world wrong. When you take talented guys who are motivated, good things typically happen. With all of that said – playoffs? I dunno…

Look around the Metro and the rest of the Eastern Conference for just one second, and you’ll quickly realize how tough a playoff run is going to be this year. The Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, and New York Rangers all have juggernaut teams in our own division. In the Atlantic, you still have the Tampa Bay Lightning hanging around, and I’m not ready to count them out yet. The Boston Bruins had one of the best regular seasons of all-time – even with their roster turnover, they’re very talented and well-coached. The Toronto Maple Leafs are always good in the regular season; and the Florida Panthers made a run all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals last season.

Then, you have a trio of teams that have also improved this summer, and should be knocking on the door: the Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, and Detroit Red Wings. And, while the New York Islanders didn’t make any major adjustments this summer, can you count out a veteran team that’s been playing together for so many years?

I’m not ready to say we’re playoff bound just yet. But, I do think the Jackets have a roster that is capable of keeping pace with at least that Islanders team this year. So my bold prediction here is that the Jackets will beat them to the finish line and take fourth in the Metro, behind the Canes, Rangers, and Devils (in some order). But, the Atlantic Division will see five teams make the playoffs this year, leaving us on the outside looking in. Hot take: one of those teams won’t be the Boston Bruins.

Still, an 85-ish point season would certainly be enough of an improvement to restore faith with the direction of this franchise, for a lot of people. And, one year of growth with our younger players all learning together is never a bad thing. Next season, they may very well be on their way to bigger and better things – like maybe legitimately contending for the Stanley Cup.

We will look back at this article at the end of the season to see how we did with our bold predictions this year. Stay tuned to unionandblue.com, as well as our social media channels (links in the upper right-hand corner) for 100% free CBJ coverage all season long!