It seems the end of an era is approaching for the NHL, as two of its most star-studded teams over the last 20 years or so are finally on the decline. But, how quickly will the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals fall from grace?
We’ll start in Pittsburgh, where I’m really puzzled by the offseason moves made by new GM Kyle Dubas. The glory days of Sid the Kid (Sidney Crosby, if you’ve been under a rock) and Evgeni Malkin seem to be in the rearview mirror, but Dubas went out and landed last year’s reigning Norris Trophy winner, Erik Karlsson, in a trade from with the San Jose Sharks. He’s treating this team like it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose players are in their prime; needing just a couple more pieces to get over the hump.
But from what I can tell, that’s not the case at all. This is a team that missed the playoffs because they struggled from a defensive and depth position last season, that has just dealt away some of their only viable two-way depth players … to get another aging, injury prone high-end superstar. It’s an odd decision, in my opinion. This core went into its last two games, needing three points to clinch a playoff spot. They played the 30th and 31st place teams in the NHL … and couldn’t get it done.
If the Karlsson experiment works, it opens the Stanley Cup window for maybe 1-2 more years for this team. But with this core is well into its mid-late 30s, and these guys are going to continue slowing down. To top it all off, they have a really thin prospect pool already, and own just 11 picks in the next two drafts – just two of them before the third round. At some point, the mighty will fall. And oh, how we’ll rejoice. This year though, they’re probably still a contender for a bubble spot. And, like the Islanders, anything can happen if they can get in. Maybe there’s still some magic here.
Which is more than I can say for the Washington Capitals. The familiar faces are there with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, TJ Oshie, Anthony Mantha, John Carlsson, and so on. They have skill and depth all over the board and theoretically could contend for a playoff spot – but I just don’t see it.
Incumbent second line center Evgeni Kuznetsov is rumored to want out, and like Pittsburgh, they are beginning their decline. Trading him could send them into a full rebuild in earnest. The positive thing I can say about the Caps is, at least they aren’t recklessly trying to grasp at the glory days of yesteryear – they have some nice, younger pieces in place, and I think their rebuild is going to be a lot less harsh.
They can still probably count on Ovechkin scoring somewhere between 40-50 goals, assuming health. They’re going to be a good team, but clearly middle of the pack under a rookie head coach. I think they could finish anywhere between last year’s 80 points, or just outside the bubble at their top end (so, 92 points).