How the Blue Jackets Stack Up Against the Rest of the Metro
This week’s Friday Feature has us glancing around the Metropolitan Division, as we ask ourselves: how do the Blue Jackets stack up against the teams they’ll need to contend with the most?
After an offseason that has seen the Jackets change drastically, mainly focusing on improving their whopping 4.02 team goals against average from last season; we all want to see this group make a push towards a playoff spot. But that’s no easy task in today’s NHL. Parity has never been greater, and teams are constantly shuffling pieces to improve on the fly and contend annually.
In short, the Jackets aren’t the only ones who have made their roster a lot better this summer … not even within the division. The hope here is that their young players can take bigger steps this season, which, combined with better health (fingers crossed) should make this team more formidable. How much more formidable is the question, after the team finished with 59 points last season. The playoff line, for the record, was 92 points – so the real question here is: can we find 33 points in the standings, without any more major moves?
I’ll point out the obvious: 16 additional wins is a huge ask, even for a team who just improved its depth on defense by adding an entire second pair this summer. Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson bring a combined 1179 games of NHL experience to a team that had just two defensemen with more than 400 games played on the roster last season (Zach Werenski and Erik Gudbranson). These guys should make a huge difference, right away.
The Jackets also turn their eyes, hopes, and dreams to the best prospect they’ve ever had; their future #1 center, Adam Fantilli. But he’ll be just 20 years old when the puck drops on opening night, and like so much of the roster, he will need time to gain experience and confidence in the NHL.
Really, it feels like once a few key players really find their way in this league, this team is headed for something special. Over the years, we have had guys who were talented, but didn’t really have their hearts in Columbus. We’ve had plenty of guys who had their hearts in Columbus, but didn’t have the talent. Very few players have checked both of these boxes – but almost never enough of them at the same time to make this team a perennial powerhouse.
But now, for the first time, there are a lot of guys who have high end talent that want to be Blue Jackets. Johnny Gaudreau chose to come here. Zach Werenski chose to stick around long-term, even through the rebuild. David Jiricek kissed the logo on the front of his sweater when he put it on for the first time. Adam Fantilli was vocal about Columbus being perfect, even before the draft. The list goes on and on.
But with all of this talent in place, the Metro division is still going to be really tough. In fact, one could make the argument that it will be tougher than ever this season: there are a few teams that are jockeying for one more run with their current cores. There are a few potential powerhouses. There’s one obvious bottom-feeder. Then there’s us, hoping to be the upstart team playing spoiler.
The Jackets, for all of their improvement, probably still need 1-2 years of seasoning before they are ready to seriously contend. Nothing is impossible, but it’s going to be tough sledding this year.
We have to kick this portion of the article off with the obvious front-runners here: the Carolina Hurricanes. The Canes have won their division for three consecutive seasons (though, the first division title was in the COVID-inspired Central division). They’ve done so by having 23 players buying into the same high-energy, hard forechecking, stingy defensive style on a nightly basis – and that does not seem to be changing any time soon with Rod Brind’Amour again returning to coach.
In fact, I think the Canes are going to be even better this season, at least from a talent and depth perspective. The team that finished with 113 points last season added free agents Michael Bunting, Dmitry Orlov, Tony DeAngelo, and Brendan Lemieux this summer. Key departures include Max Pacioretty, Shane Gostisbehere, Ondrej Kase, and Calvin de Haan.
They’ll have the deepest, most talented defense corps in the NHL this season, and I don’t think anyone can seriously debate that. This team rolls out Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns, Orlov, DeAngelo, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei as their likely top-six this season. Couple that with one of the league’s best kept secrets in Sebastian Aho; who is joined by talented scorers like Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, Teuvo Teravainen and others; you quickly see that there aren’t many weaknesses here. They also return both goaltenders from last year, along with one of the top crease prospects in hockey. This team is firmly locked in the Stanley Cup contenders category, and should be the class of the division.
But if the Canes slip (big if), the New Jersey Devils might be next in line for a run at a division title this season. If Stanley Cups are won down the middle, the Devils have an edge over most other teams in the league. They’ll roll out Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier for a combined 35-40 minutes per night, giving them an elite talent playing in the middle of the ice for 2/3 of every game. It’s almost unfair.
They’ve been somewhat quiet this summer aside from the Yegor Sharangovich for Tyler Toffoli swap (I love this trade for them); instead relying on growth from within. After dealing away Ryan Graves and Damon Severson, they’ll have two of the top defense prospects in hockey vying for jobs this fall in Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes, and the hope in New Jersey is that both of these guys can step into pivotal roles as this team continues to transition into Cup contention.
Still, there is one big concern here for me: their goaltending. For all of the talent up and down this lineup, they’re seemingly content relying on the tandem of Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid to get them over the top. It’s a bold strategy, and one that could be a big storyline whether it works or not. But, if they can get at least middle of the pack play from these two, they should easily be a 100+ point team yet again.
Crossing the Hudson River from New Jersey takes us right into Manhattan, where the New York Rangers are another team that cannot be ignored.
I personally believe the Rangers have the best goaltender in the Metro in Igor Shesterkin. He’s going to give them 50-60 quality starts, with a chance to win most every night. But they brought in some experience and a multi-time Cup winning pedigree in Jonathan Quick, giving him the best backup he’s ever had. In the crease, the Rangers are in great shape.
Which leads us to their roster, which is also really good. They have talent, depth and experience at every position; returning essentially their entire team from last season, save some adjustments at the bottom of the lineup. They’re led by the usual suspects: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox, Chris Kreider, and Vincent Trochek.
They also bring in Blake Wheeler, who adds a ton of size, skill and more experience to their talented middle-six. I really like this team, and I think they’re being slept on a little bit – let’s not forget, they finished just one point behind New Jersey last season. They could contend for the division under the fresh leadership of new head coach Peter Laviolette.
If we head just a little further east, we run right into Long Island, where the New York Islanders might be getting stale – but it’s hard to write this team off as well. They finished fourth in the division with 93 points last season, and will return the same lineup this year. No really, it’s the exact same lineup – there aren’t many major additions or subtractions for the Isles, unless you consider 38 year old Zach Parise, who still might return. They finally relieved themselves of Josh Bailey as well, a move seemingly years in the making.
But the core of this team, Mat Barzal, Bo Horvat, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, JG Pageau, Ryan Pulock, and on down; comes back for another run. They’ll lean heavily on Ilya Sorokin, who is the only goaltender in the division that might be able to push Shesterkin for top honors, as they look to again be a playoff contender.
At some point, it feels like the Islanders are going to have to blow this roster all up. It really is stagnating – but for the time being, they’re still in the hunt for that 85-100 point level, and sometimes getting into the playoffs is all you need to have a hot goalie take over. Just ask the Florida Panthers last season.
It seems the end of an era is approaching for the NHL, as two of its most star-studded teams over the last 20 years or so are finally on the decline. But, how quickly will the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals fall from grace?
We’ll start in Pittsburgh, where I’m really puzzled by the offseason moves made by new GM Kyle Dubas. The glory days of Sid the Kid (Sidney Crosby, if you’ve been under a rock) and Evgeni Malkin seem to be in the rearview mirror, but Dubas went out and landed last year’s reigning Norris Trophy winner, Erik Karlsson, in a trade from with the San Jose Sharks. He’s treating this team like it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose players are in their prime; needing just a couple more pieces to get over the hump.
But from what I can tell, that’s not the case at all. This is a team that missed the playoffs because they struggled from a defensive and depth position last season, that has just dealt away some of their only viable two-way depth players … to get another aging, injury prone high-end superstar. It’s an odd decision, in my opinion. This core went into its last two games, needing three points to clinch a playoff spot. They played the 30th and 31st place teams in the NHL … and couldn’t get it done.
If the Karlsson experiment works, it opens the Stanley Cup window for maybe 1-2 more years for this team. But with this core is well into its mid-late 30s, and these guys are going to continue slowing down. To top it all off, they have a really thin prospect pool already, and own just 11 picks in the next two drafts – just two of them before the third round. At some point, the mighty will fall. And oh, how we’ll rejoice. This year though, they’re probably still a contender for a bubble spot. And, like the Islanders, anything can happen if they can get in. Maybe there’s still some magic here.
Which is more than I can say for the Washington Capitals. The familiar faces are there with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, TJ Oshie, Anthony Mantha, John Carlsson, and so on. They have skill and depth all over the board and theoretically could contend for a playoff spot – but I just don’t see it.
Incumbent second line center Evgeni Kuznetsov is rumored to want out, and like Pittsburgh, they are beginning their decline. Trading him could send them into a full rebuild in earnest. The positive thing I can say about the Caps is, at least they aren’t recklessly trying to grasp at the glory days of yesteryear – they have some nice, younger pieces in place, and I think their rebuild is going to be a lot less harsh.
They can still probably count on Ovechkin scoring somewhere between 40-50 goals, assuming health. They’re going to be a good team, but clearly middle of the pack under a rookie head coach. I think they could finish anywhere between last year’s 80 points, or just outside the bubble at their top end (so, 92 points).
One team is tearing it all down, with an eye towards resetting the entire franchise and building for contention way down the road. And, where do the Jackets end up?
I’ve been a hockey fan for over 30 years, and this is the first time I’ve seen the Philadelphia Flyers execute a proper rebuild. Their current M.O. seems to be to deal away the core of the team and acquire draft picks and prospects. Quite similar to the position the Jackets were in 2-3 years ago; the Flyers are hoping the reset leads to a more skilled, competitive team in a few years’ time.
But if there’s one thing we all know well: John Tortorella hates losing. So, I think we can count on the Flyers being a plucky, hard working team, that tries to grind out games in a 2-1, 3-2 fashion. If there are more than five goals scored in many of their games this season, they are probably in big trouble – the talent just isn’t there in Philly. This is a team that should be competing for the first overall pick at the 2024 NHL Draft.
In all, I see the Metro as a division with five clear and distinct tiers this season. There’s that top tier, which includes the Carolina Hurricanes (say, the 115-120 point group), with the New Jersey Devils possibly knocking on the door. There’s a second tier, where I have the Devils at the higher end – as well as the New York Rangers (we’ll call this our 100+ point group). I think these teams will be vying for the #2/3 seeds in the division all season long.
Then, I feel like there’s a pretty significant drop-off to the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins, who I have in tier three (the 90-100 point group). Either team could contend for a bubble spot – or fall completely out of the running by mid-season. Next up, tier four, we can pretty much call the Washington Capitals tier (80-90 points). They’re in a little bit of a no-man’s land, where I don’t think they’re good enough to contend for a playoff spot, but they aren’t falling into high draft lottery contention either. At the bottom, by a stretch, are the Philadelphia Flyers (say, 55-65 points).
So, which tier do you think we can place the Jackets into? Realistically speaking, without massive breakout seasons from at least a couple of players like Kent Johnson, Adam Fantilli, Adam Boqvist, Kirill Marchenko, David Jiricek, Yegor Chinakhov or Cole Sillinger, this team is in that “Washington Tier” of 80-90 points.
Assuming they’re relatively healthy, I think we can expect Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, Boone Jenner, Emil Bemstrom, Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov, Damon Severson, and on down the list; to at least make this team competitive on a nightly basis. They aren’t going to get shelled by the top teams in this league any longer – the games will be closer and more entertaining. They will even win a few more of them.
But, to go from 59 points to a playoff spot, is really a big ask. Their biggest addition this summer, at least for the immediate future, without any doubt in my mind, is Mike Babcock. He’ll get these guys all playing the same way, and there is a ton of talent here. But it needs to mature a little bit to reach its full potential, and a full year of battle testing is the best way to do that.
So, let’s hope for a bounce back season from the Jackets this year. If Elvis Merzlikins can return to form and give this team quality goaltending, anything can happen. I’m just hesitant to call it “playoffs or bust” at this point.
Next. Three Active Former Jackets Who Would be Perfect Fits. dark