Columbus Blue Jackets: What Should We Expect from Adam Fantilli?
After landing what I would call the perfect player with the third overall pick in the draft, the Blue Jackets now have their apparent #1 center. Adam Fantilli is not like any prospect the Jackets have ever had before, so while we’re smart to temper expectations with a teenager; I think we would be remiss if we didn’t talk about how he might be able to produce this season.
We’ve been quick to point out that Fantilli is probably the best prospect the Blue Jackets have ever had. I’m not even sure it’s really debatable. Rick Nash was the previous holder of that title, and while he went on to write the Blue Jacket record book, let’s be honest: amongst first overall selections since the year 2000, he’s roughly middle of the pack.
Adam Fantilli likely goes first overall in most of the drafts that have taken place since the Blue Jackets’ inception. Not all of them (2004, 2005, 2015 for sure, maybe 2013 and 2016) – but, a good majority anyway. He’s a terrific talent with the requisite size, skill, and competitiveness that you want from a future #1 center.
With that said, he will have to make a big adjustment to professional hockey. And, for a team that is desperately thin down the middle, he’s probably the best candidate to center one of the top two lines, so we’re hoping he can make that adjustment fairly quickly. Fortunately, this team isn’t in a dire talent situation like the one he might have faced elsewhere.
He’ll have some great quality wingers in the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, and maybe even Boone Jenner (depending on how the rest of the lineup shakes out). The team also has a revamped defense, with some good quality veterans who should be able to get the puck out of their own end.
He will also be able to benefit from one of the best “X and O” coaches to ever stand behind an NHL bench in Mike Babcock. When you put it all together; his natural talent, the quality of linemates he should have, and a solid team system, should set him up for early success.
It’s not entirely fair to say that he’ll be a point-per-game player out of the gate … but, I also don’t think that’s above his reach, especially if he gets to play alongside Gaudreau. Interestingly enough, there is one player in recent history that we can compare him to, almost side-by-side, if we want to give him some benchmarks this season…
Let’s talk about that historical 2015 NHL Draft. Connor McDavid was the first overall pick that year, but for debate’s sake, we’re looking at the second overall pick from that same draft: Jack Eichel.
If you put the freshman NCAA seasons of Adam Fantilli and Jack Eichel side by side, there’s a striking resemblance here. In 2015, Eichel became the second freshman to win the Hobey Baker Award on the back of a 26 goal, 71 point season (40 games played) – averaging 0.65 goals per game, and 1.775 points per game for Boston College.
Fantilli just won the 2023 Hobey Baker as a Freshman, after a 30 goal, 65 point effort for the University of Michigan (36 games played) – an 0.83 goals per game average, 1.805 points per game. If you look at it strictly from a productivity angle, it’s an easy comparison to make.
The other places you can compare the two are just as eerie: their size; both are 6’2″, but currently Fantilli is about 20 pounds lighter, but ultimately I think that’s where his playing weight will be as well. Both are creative stickhandlers, well above average skaters, physical, play both ends of the ice … you can make comaprisons all day between these two, and it’s really hard to find any differences aside from Eichel’s NHL experience and production.
Which is where we’re getting to: what will Adam Fantilli’s rookie season productivity be? Continuing to make the Eichel comparison, Jack stepped right into the NHL after being drafted, joining the Buffalo Sabres for the 2015-16 season. He went on to score 24 goals and 56 points in 81 games played for the Sabres, who finished the season 35-36-11 (7th in the Atlantic).
He didn’t have much help that season, really. Buffalo’s leading scorer was Ryan O’Reilly, who scored 21 goals and 60 points in 71 games. Eichel took second on the team, with a wide gap to Sam Reinhart (42 points), Rasmus Ristolainen (41) and Evander Kane (35).
Right off the bat, you can see how Fantilli could be primed for a similar year – or maybe even better. The Jackets will return their top-eight leading scorers, with a much more talented supporting cast; including potential linemates Johnny Gaudreau (74 points), Patrik Laine (52), Boone Jenner (45), Kent Johnson (40), and Kirill Marchenko (25). Of note, only two of these players played more than 70 games for the Jackets last season (Gaudreau, 80; Johnson, 79).
This is not even including top defenseman Zach Werenski, who missed most of last season due to injury – or the potential of a big rebound season from a player like Cole Sillinger; or the potential breakout of a player like Yegor Chinakhov. In short, the Jackets are really set up to welcome in a player like Fantilli, with plenty of support.
With all of that in mind, are we really out of line to hope for a 25 goal, 60 point season from our #3 overall draft pick? I really don’t think that’s an unfair expectation. Let’s assume he plays on one of the top two lines, flanked by either Gaudreau or Laine, and then one of Marchenko, Jenner, or Johnson. I think it’s likely he could be the net-front guy on the first power-play unit as well. Jenner did a nice job there the last couple of seasons, but let’s face it, Fantilli is not only more skilled – he’s in better shape to take that kind of punishment.
If these predictions hold true, I don’t think 60 points is out of reach for Fantilli. It’s possible he could be even more productive than that, and I think he has an inside track to the Calder Trophy. He’s just coming into a better environment than some of the other top prospects entering the league.
dark. Next. CBJ: Regaining the Lost Confidence of Elvis Merzlikins