Columbus Blue Jackets FanSided AMA: June 2023

Magnafang asks: What is a reasonable expectation for when the next 50 win season will be?

Great question, especially for a pro-Jarmo guy like myself. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect this team to compete for 50 wins in its upcoming season. There are still glaring holes at center, especially on the top two lines. They’ll have a new coach, with new systems … and they’re hoping that the new additions on defense can help the goalies get back on track.

There are just too many question marks at the moment, and there will be some growing pains this year. BUT, with all that said, they should be much improved over last year, already. They have a lot more experience on the blue line, and if Mike Babcock is indeed their new coach, there will be accountability. I think it’s fair to expect this team to go from 59 points, to somewhere around 80 points.

As far as 50 wins, which guarantees a playoff spot? I’ll say 2024-25 is a reasonable expectation. By then, whoever we pick third overall should be at least competing for a job here. That player is going to be special, so if they aren’t able to make the roster, it’s because this team has improved dramatically down the middle. If they do make the team, this team will be dramatically improved down the middle. And really, I would argue that the center position is the only real shortcoming on this roster at the moment – assuming Elvis gets his game under control.

If not, if they are still scrapping and clawing and trying to play .500 hockey, I expect dramatic changes to the top of the organization after that season.

Travis Weaver asks: How about a way too early prediction at the opening lines?

For the point I made above, I expect Jarmo to be big game hunting for a center this summer. They need a legitimate top-six pivot, and won’t want to wait another 1-2 years for that player to develop. But, for the time being, I think it goes something like this:

F

Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko

Johnson – Roslovic – Laine

Texier – Sillinger – Chinakhov

Robinson – Kuraly – Olivier

Foudy, Voronkov

D

Werenski – Boqvist

Provorov – Severson

Bean – Gudbranson

Blankenburg

G: Merzlikins, Tarasov

Now, with all of this aside, do you notice the glaring omissions? David Jiricek, Emil Bemstrom, Andrew Peeke, Justin Danforth, and Hunter McKown are also going to be vying for spots. What about Trey Fix-Wolansky? For all of these reasons, and having a guy like Voronkov seemingly ready but with nowhere to play, I think big moves are coming here.

What if they draft Leo Carlsson or Adam Fantilli, and they win a spot? It’s a lot of guys competing for the bottom-six already … imagine Jenner and/or Roslovic fighting for those roles also. It’s a good problem to have, but, it is a problem. They’ll have to move at least one defenseman, maybe two, and probably at least one or two forwards just to break this logjam up.

Ole CBJ Dad (is that Norwegian?) asks: With the OEL buyout coming a week after Jarmo’s moves, do you think there’s any “buyer’s remorse” so to speak with the CBJ front office?

Nah, I don’t think so. At least, not if we’re talking about Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson. Think of it like this: if we’re finding out about Oliver Ekman-Larsson this weekend, how long do you think the Canucks have been trying to explore trade options for him?

My guess is, the Jackets probably had several discussions with the Canucks. Honestly, knowing how these things work, probably as far back as the trade deadline or maybe even before that. Nobody wanted to take on that contract, which is why it had to be bought out. As far as signing him after the fact? I would have reasonable suspicion there as well…

I think comparing him to a guy like Provorov is apples to oranges. Provorov has proven to be a capable D zone player, while OEL is a puck mover whose best years were, well, years ago. Like several years. He’s put up 29 and 22 points over the last two seasons, and missed a ton of hockey during that time. Seems like a regressing asset, that they probably would have signed to a contract not dissimilar to Erik Gudbranson’s $4×4 deal in free agency. If they have any buyer’s remorse at all over the last two years, my gut says it’s probably Gudbranson, so, OEL wasn’t happening, no matter how you shake it down.

Go Jackets asks: When do you think they decided on firing Brad Larsen? It seems like it was definitely before the season ended since Jarmo was very strong in saying they absolutely needed a change. Why not fire him in February and have a couple months to see if Pascal Vincent is the guy?

Merely speculating here, but I think they decided to move on from Brad Larsen sometime around November. You could see that things weren’t going their way, and nothing was being done that gave anyone, anywhere in the organization, any confidence that he could fix it. Gudbranson’s comments about the practices being soft were really telling, and the fact that nobody really said anything to the contrary, is also telling. They just sorta … let it play out.

Even though they made the decision at that point, I think they stuck with Lars for a couple of reasons. One, he’d been with the organization for such a long time, that I think they felt some sense of loyalty was due. Give him a chance to figure it out, which obviously never happened. And two, because, at that point, they were so far out of things, that firing their coach and hoping for a quick turn-around, was ultimately just going to flush away this team’s chance at having a high pick in a draft that could go down as one of the best of all-time. They punted and took the pick.

I’ve said before, and I’ll fall back on it again: I think Lars was hired because they thought he might fail in this role. They knew they were going to be heading through a rebuild one way or the other, so bringing on a coach like this meant they would either fail spectacularly and have high picks … or he would surprise us all and become one of the best coaches in the league, thus eliminating the rebuild altogether. Let’s be honest: they weren’t really going to contend with the rosters they’ve had over the last two years, so if he could have gotten it done, he would have been a Jack Adams contender.

If you look at it from that perspective, even though it was hard, this year was really a success. By keeping Larsen on board and putting up with the suffering for a few months, this team is now better positioned than it has ever been. Next week, they’ll draft the best prospect they’ve ever had. Would that be the case, if they’d fired him in November?

Jonathan Pierce asks: Is it more likely the CBJ trade for a C to bridge the 2-3 year gap until 3OA (presumably Carlsson) is ready to take over #1C spot, or to try to bring a current #1C on a long-term deal?

I think this one depends on a couple of things. One of those things is cost. But most importantly, which center do they take third overall? If they take one of Fantilli or Carlsson, I think they’re going to try to add someone for one or two years. Both of those guys are really close to NHL ready, maybe even this season, but you want some insurance in case things don’t work out. Also, doesn’t hurt to have a mentor for this player, and the other young centers they’ll hope to move into prominent roles.

If they were to go wild card and take Will Smith third overall, I think the plan shifts and they could go searching for something more long term. Smith will take time to develop into the NHL, and having someone who can eat up minutes and tough matchups, could make a lot of difference for him as he comes along.

This is probably the main storyline for this team, aside from officially hiring their new head coach – who also might have a center preference, if given a list of names available. We all know that something has to change down the middle, and they have too many players fighting for a limited number of jobs (just look at my roster prediction from earlier in the article). It will be fascinating to see what happens, and I don’t think it’s going to be popular with everyone.

Our old friend Franklin Steele asks via Facebook: Who is a former CBJ player who you don’t feel like gets (or received) enough credit from fans?

This one made me think. There are some good ones: Kristian Huselius quietly scored 142 points in 189 games here. I would personally make an argument that Alexander Wennberg is exactly the center this team needs for its second line right now. More recently, Vladislav Gavrikov was criminally underrated by a lot of people within this fanbase.

But, if you want one name that stands out: Sergei Bobrovksy, hands down. In seven seasons in Columbus, Bob was great elite. He won two Vezina trophies, and in four separate seasons had a save percentage of greater than 92% – twice, better than 93%. The team made the playoffs four times with him as their #1 goaltender during his time here. He’s a top-3 or 4 player for this franchise all-time, but anytime someone ever has something to say about his time here, it’s negative.

Now, I know things went sour towards the end. I also know that a lot of people like to hang this team’s playoff failures on his shoulders. But these points do not detract from the fact that Bobrovsky was the backbone of this franchise for almost his entire time here. Without him, they probably wouldn’t have played in half of those playoff games that everyone likes to blame him for losing.

We should not have been surprised to see him go on his deep playoff run this season. We all know how hot he can run, and when he’s on, there are few in the history of the game who have been better than Bob. At some point, we have to acknowledge that, and appreciate that he was ours for so many years.

On the flip side: maybe if Bob weren’t so dynamic, this team continues their rebuild beyond 2016, and is in perennial contention right now. Maybe in some alternate universe.

That’s all for this version of our AMA. Thank you to everyone who submitted a question, I had a great time answering all of these. Stay tuned to our social media channels, (Twitter) (Facebook) if you would like to have your question answered at some point in the future.