Pros and Cons of Each Potential Third Overall Pick for the Blue Jackets

Leo Carlsson is one of the most highly touted prospects to come out of Sweden in a long time. If I were going up to the stage to make this pick, this is my guy.

Assuming Connor Bedard goes to the Blackhawks first overall, and Adam Fantilli goes to the Ducks second overall, in my opinion, Leo Carlsson is the best player left on the board. I will argue that it’s closer than a lot of people think (more on that later), but really, there’s no need to overthink this pick. Carlsson will be the best player on the board.

He checks every box if you’re looking at organizational needs for the Blue Jackets. He’s a center who has the size we need (6’3″, 194 pounds), he has that much needed high-end playmaking ability, and he’s a stout two-way player who competes in all three zones. He has the potential to become our long sought-after first line center, and he’s really close to being NHL ready. Though, a year of development to let him grow his offensive game, might be best.

In fact, in a lot of other years – including last year – Carlsson is probably a good bet to go first overall. He scored 10 goals and 15 assists in 44 games as an underage player in the SHL this year. If you’re comparing his stats to some of the other guys in this range, that may seem underwhelming, but look at the facts: the SHL is one of the toughest, most defensive leagues in the world.

He was a top-six scorer for his team as an 18 year old. The team’s leading scorer is a 27 year old veteran, who had just 41 points on the season – while playing in 7 more games than Carlsson. His production was no small feat, and he will only continue to get better as time goes on.

That said, his game isn’t perfect. There are concerns about whether or not he plays at the pace required to be an NHL center, and whether or not he’s physical enough to win puck battles at this level. Those concerns are well merited, but I’m not as worried about them. He has the size, skill and distributing ability to be a center in the NHL.

He’s drawn comparisons to Mats Sundin at the same age, but we talked about him being comparable to Florida superstar Aleksander Barkov in our draft previews. Another recent comparison I’ve seen is Anze Kopitar – I do think that Leo Carlsson has the potential to become a similar type of game changing player. There is nothing wrong with picking this guy third overall.

One reason Leo Carlsson isn’t the clear and evident third overall prospect? Will Smith has game breaking potential, and could be a high end top-line scorer for many years to come.

Like Carlsson, in many years, Will Smith probably challenges for the first overall slot. This season, he scored 51 goals and 127 points in 60 games with the USNTDP – scoring at a pace in the range of players like Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes in their draft years, for the same team.

Smith doesn’t have the size of a player like Carlsson, but he isn’t slight either – he checks in at 6’0″, just over 170 pounds. He plays the game with a high motor, using his speed and skill to put defenders on their heels. He’s a terrific playmaker who can create offense even at his top end speed, and he has high end finishing ability also.

While he doesn’t have an NHL-ready two-way game, he has shown a willingness and efficiency to hold his weight in his own end. Getting stronger and adding polish to his overall game is the key here – but make no mistake, from an offensive ceiling standpoint, he’s a top-5 player in this draft. He’s another candidate to be our future top line center, if selected on draft day.

All of that said, Smith is not a player that we could expect to see in Columbus this fall. He’s headed to Boston College this fall, and I’m of the belief that he needs at least one year – maybe even two – before he’s ready to take on the pro game. With a player like this, it’s important for him to play heavy minutes, keeping his offense flowing freely – while teaching him the other nuances of the game.

Confidence is key with high flying forwards like this, and putting him into the NHL too early means he probably gets outmatched physically and defensively. But, if you’re willing to play the patient game, I could see this pick working out. Smith has a huge ceiling, and I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that he can be a Mat Barzal or Jack Hughes type of offensive player in the NHL (maybe somewhere in between).

He’s not my pick in the #3 slot, but the gap from Carlsson to Smith is not as wide as some might make it seem. If the Jackets want to swing for the fences on a player that probably won’t be here for three years though, why not look at a third option?

Matvei Michkov, in five years’ time, will probably be a top-three player from this draft class. But are the question marks looming too large here?

This draft is a really rare one, in that there is not only one of these rare “generational talent” players available – there may be two. Matvei Michkov would probably be challenging Connor Bedard for the first overall slot, if he played in the CHL. He’s an electrifying talent who will become the face of an NHL franchise some day.

The problem? He’s playing in Russia, and he’s signed for three more seasons. Couple that with the geopolitical situation in Europe right now, and it’s really hard to see a team taking a swing on this player with a top-five pick this season. Especially when the top-five has so many other strong candidates.

Michkov has a terrific hockey IQ, and can create offense in a variety of ways. He’s an elusive skater with a terrific release; while also bringing high end playmaking and a fast motor to the game. He’s slight, listed at 5’10” and 150 or so pounds – but in the end, this guy could be the only player in the entire draft who has an offensive ceiling close to Bedard.

The Jackets are stacked with prospects and players on the wings, but if they think they can bring Michkov over sooner, do they take a swing here? If they don’t like something about Leo Carlsson, I don’t think it’s entirely impossible. Will Smith will probably take just as long to shine in the NHL, and Michkov’s ceiling is way higher.

They also have a recent history of success in being patient with Russian prospects. Yegor Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko, and now Dmitri Voronkov, have all made the move to North America to sign with the Jackets. Would they do the same with Michkov and land a cornerstone type piece?

Ultimately, I have a hard time seeing it happen. Maybe if they had a couple of high end centers on the way – but they don’t. Every true center prospect they have probably tops out on the second line, at best. I think this pick will come down to Carlsson or Smith, and it may be decided based on what style of player they prefer.

Do they go with the big, two-way, playmaking pivot in Carlsson? Or the smaller, shifty, electrifying scorer in Smith? Time will tell, but it’s important to remember that whichever player they pick here, probably rockets to the top of their prospect list. A list that is already among the best in the NHL. For that reason, it will be hard for them to miss – this is a strong first round.