Why This Rebuild is Different for the Columbus Blue Jackets
I’ll be the first to admit that this season has been difficult to watch. In fact, it’s honestly been unbearable. We’ve seen this team struggle before, and most of us have been around long enough to see this team fight through a rebuild. But believe me when I say this: this one is different.
I know what you’re thinking, mostly because I see your comments on social media. “We’ve been watching this for 23 years! It should be better!”. Look, I agree, we do deserve better. We deserve to be watching meaningful games in March; not 6-2 poundings by a team who stole our best player away four years ago.
We don’t deserve to see this team in the tank, vying for a lottery spot against teams that we should honestly beat 10/10 times if we play them head to head. But it hasn’t gone our way this year, that’s a fact. This team was constructed to take a step forward this year, which meant perhaps a run at a wild card spot in the playoffs – but a slow start, compounded by injuries to some of the most important players on the roster, derailed any chance of this team making a push.
But – bear with me here – this time, it really is different. I know you probably don’t want to hear it. Many of you won’t agree with me and will simply respond by telling us all that Jarmo Kekalainen is the wrong man for the job. He’s had ten years, only one series win to show for it, etc. I get that frustration, I feel it too.
Before we dive too deep into this thing, let me make one point: the reason this team is so disappointing this year, is because, on paper, this is one of the best rosters we’ve ever had.
Is that really up for much debate? This team entered the season with two prime-aged, elite skilled wingers. They had two veteran wingers to balance out the top-six; as well as some seriously promising rookies coming into the lineup. The real question marks were on defense and down the middle, but still, a lot of us thought this team could take steps in the right direction. Whether you saw playoff potential or not, the reason this season has hurt so much, is because we expected more from this group.
Think about that for just a minute and answer this question: with that in mind, is it really fair to call for a new GM, during the rebuild, in a season where the team will end up with 500+ man games lost to injury? Honestly, he deserves credit for scrambling and icing a team we thought could be so much better this year, after losing all of the talent he’s lost in the last four years. These are the up front reasons why I’m still believing in Jarmo’s plan, but there’s a lot more to this puzzle we need to discuss…
While this season will ultimately be written off as lost – is it really a lost season if the young players on the roster gain experience and improve?
Let’s start with Kirill Marchenko’s development this year. Up front, I felt like he should have been on this team to start the season, but a stint in the AHL helped him get his feet wet. By the time he came up, he looked like an NHL-ready top-six winger … so that development plan might have been the correct way to go.
Kirill is a sniper, plain and simple #CBJ pic.twitter.com/RNS9qlhlLG
— Union and Blue (@UnionAndBlue) March 28, 2023
Suddenly, he’s one off the league lead for goals by rookies with 20, despite playing in 24 fewer games than the only player ahead of him. This ties him for the franchise record, held by Pierre-Luc Dubois. Next up on that list are as follows: Rick Nash (17), Boone Jenner (16) Cole Sillinger (16) and Kent Johnson (15 and counting). What can we learn from the history of the top rookies this franchise has ever had?
Well, for starters, we can put Nash, Jenner and Dubois into one sub-category because we know what they all became; they’re the veterans on this list. But the other common theme with these guys is: they were basically the only impactful rookies on each of those Blue Jacket teams.
In 2002-03, Nash led the way amongst rookies with 17 goals and 39 points. The next two on the team were 28 year old Lasse Pirjeta (11g, 21p) and 24 year old Derrick Walser (4g, 17p). In Jenner’s rookie year of 2013-14; he scored 16g and 29p – the only other rookie to produce anything notable was Ryan Murray (4g, 17p). In Dubois’ rookie year (2017-18), it was himself (20g, 48p); followed up by Sonny Milano (14g, 22p) and 24 year old Markus Hannikainen (3g, 3a).
The other three players we noted on the top of the goals list by rookies, are all in their first or second year with the Blue Jacket organization. Both Johnson and Marchenko are eyeing franchise bests as rookies … at the same time. This in a year where we just signed Johnny Gaudreau; adding him to a roster including Patrik Laine and Zach Werenski, with some seriously good young talent already on and around the team.
The problem this year is, they’ve all been forced into more significant roles because of the situation this team is in. But this instance isn’t comparable to the other times this team has had high draft picks – these guys aren’t going at it mostly alone. This is a young core that is learning together, and will hopefully grow together, and become the core of this franchise for years to come. And there’s more coming…
Excluding the notable talent here like Johnny Gaudreau, Elvis Merzlikins, and even Zach Werenski, just take a look at some of the the U-25 pieces this team has…
Patrik Laine, Hunter McKown, Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, Kirill Marchenko, Emil Bemstrom, Liam Foudy, Trey Fix-Wolansky, Adam Boqvist, Tim Berni, Jake Christiansen, Nick Blankenburg, Andrew Peeke, Jake Bean, Alexandre Texier, Yegor Chinakhov, Luca del bel Belluz, Jordan Dumais, Mikael Pyyhtia, James Malatesta, Tyler Angle, Cameron Butler, David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk, Stanislav Svozil, Corson Ceulemans, Samuel Knazko, Daniil Tarasov, Jet Greaves, Dmitry Voronkov…
Most of these guys have NHL games under their belt already. A good chunk of them are legitimate NHL prospects with huge upside, though admittedly some of them are a 2-3 years away. All of this doesn’t even include the upcoming picks they have at an absolutely stacked 2023 NHL Draft. They will likely add a top-5 pick to this already solid prospect pool that is undeniably one of the best in the league. As things stand right now, they have an additional first round pick, plus a high second, and two each in the third and fourth rounds.
With the way this team has drafted in recent years, these picks should catapult them into the top prospect pool in the league. I feel pretty comfortable in saying that; and this pool is going to exclude some of the top guys; like Marchenko, Johnson, Sillinger and Boqvist. They already have arguably the top defense prospect in all of hockey in Jiricek, and by early July, he probably won’t even be the top prospect in the system anymore. That’s how good this draft is lining up to be.
If they get lucky and win the ultimate draft lottery, Connor Bedard could be the added piece that launches this team into the stratosphere of perennial Cup contenders. But even if they don’t, they’re adding another future core piece – probably an eventual top line center. If this team were ever going to lay an egg over an entire season, this is the year to do it.
For all of these reasons, this rebuild is completely different than any we have seen before. This isn’t a situation where we have one prospect on the way or one talented rookie on the roster, that we’re hanging all of our hopes on. We have our best players all signed long-term, unlike the last rebuild where everyone hit the road for free agency. If even a handful of these guys hit and become core members of this team, the future is going to be really bright. And we’re already seeing that take place with guys like Boqvist, Marchenko, and Johnson. Hopefully Sillinger comes back confident and re-establishes himself as part of that core again next year.
I get the concerns and the frustration with this team’s history, but we can’t put previous management’s failures on this management regime. These guys have had some success after a partial rebuild, and this is their first go at a full rebuild. Whether having a lottery pick this year was part of the plan or not, it’s only going to cement this team’s status as one of the best examples of top U25 players in the entire NHL. Just give it some time, this pain will be well worth it if they’re able to ice a contender in a few years.
Next. CBJ Roster is a Far Cry From What We Should Have. dark