Weighing the Odds For the Blue Jackets: What is a Pick Worth?

As evaluation season begins in earnest, management and the coaching staff of the Blue Jackets will start to look at what next season’s roster could look like. Meanwhile, we’re doing some evaluation of our own: what is the value of a high pick in the draft?

The main question we’re trying to answer for ourselves here: how bad does this team have to finish, to make this dreadful season worth the reward? The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is super prospect Connor Bedard; and while he may be the ultimate draft lottery prize, even if the Jackets finish last, the odds are somewhat against them. Still, this draft can produce a franchise-altering moment for us, assuming it’s done right.

Today I took the time to run through the most recent 10 years of NHL drafts that we can actually evaluate. Typically, you don’t know what you have from a draft until 5 years after it takes place; so for the purpose of this article I went through each draft from 2009-2018 and looked at each of the top-10 picks.

I broke down each selection based on number of games played, as well as total point production to this point in their careers. The results here aren’t entirely surprising – first overall picks are typically most productive, followed by second overall picks, then third … but then things get a little bit muddier. Here’s how it looks:

1st overall picks – average 598 career games played, 526 points – 0.88 points-per-game. Best: Connor McDavid, 2015 (1.49ppg); worst: Nail Yakupov, 2012 (0.39ppg)

2nd overall picks – average 576 career games played, 424 points – 0.74 points-per-game. Best: Aleksander Barkov, 2013 (0.94ppg); worst: Ryan Murray, 2012 (0.29ppg)

3rd overall picks – average 553 career games played, 365 points – 0.66 points-per-game. Best: Leon Draisaitl, 2014 (1.15ppg); worst: Erik Gudbranson, 2010 (0.15ppg)

4th overall picks – average 509 career games played, 305 points – 0.60 points-per-game. Best: Mitch Marner, 2015 (1.09ppg); worst: Griffin Reinhart, 2012 (0.05ppg)

5th overall picks – average 495 career games played, 288 points – 0.58 points-per-game. Best: Elias Pettersson, 2017 (0.98ppg); worst: Olli Juolevi, 2016 (0.07ppg).

6th overall picks – average 509 career games played, 286 points – 0.56 points-per-game. Best: Matthew Tkachuk, 2016 (0.94ppg); worst: Jake Virtanen, 2014 (0.32ppg)

7th overall picks – average 510 career games played, 306 points – 0.60 points-per-game. Best: Mark Scheifele, 2011 (0.90ppg); worst: Hayden Fleury, 2014 (0.13ppg).

8th overall picks – average 337 career games played, 177 points – 0.53 points-per-game. Best: William Nylander, 2014 (0.83ppg); worst: Scott Glennie, 2009 (0 career points)

9th overall picks – average 468 career games played, 268 points – 0.57 points-per-game. Best: Nikolaj Ehlers, 2014 (0.75ppg); worst: Jared Cowen, 2009 (0.18ppg)

10th overall picks – average 357 career games played, 152 points – 0.43 points-per-game. Best: Mikko Rantanen, 2015 (1.02ppg); worst: Dylan McIlrath, 2010 (0.08ppg).

Clearly, the higher you pick typically means you have a chance get a better player, but there are some nice gems found after the top-two picks in the draft too. This is where a strong scouting department can really make or break a franchise. Oftentimes, once you get past the top few selections in the draft, you’re picking players based on projections. Those projections can vary from one scouting staff to another, and being wrong in these situations – such as taking Olli Juolevi one pick ahead of Matthew Tkachuk, or Scott Glennie inside the top 10 – can kill a team.

But if you can get one right, and snag a Mark Scheifele or Mikko Rantanen at the bottom-half of the top-10, you can build a competitive team for many years to come.