Weighing the Odds For the Blue Jackets: What is a Pick Worth?
As evaluation season begins in earnest, management and the coaching staff of the Blue Jackets will start to look at what next season’s roster could look like. Meanwhile, we’re doing some evaluation of our own: what is the value of a high pick in the draft?
The main question we’re trying to answer for ourselves here: how bad does this team have to finish, to make this dreadful season worth the reward? The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is super prospect Connor Bedard; and while he may be the ultimate draft lottery prize, even if the Jackets finish last, the odds are somewhat against them. Still, this draft can produce a franchise-altering moment for us, assuming it’s done right.
Today I took the time to run through the most recent 10 years of NHL drafts that we can actually evaluate. Typically, you don’t know what you have from a draft until 5 years after it takes place; so for the purpose of this article I went through each draft from 2009-2018 and looked at each of the top-10 picks.
I broke down each selection based on number of games played, as well as total point production to this point in their careers. The results here aren’t entirely surprising – first overall picks are typically most productive, followed by second overall picks, then third … but then things get a little bit muddier. Here’s how it looks:
1st overall picks – average 598 career games played, 526 points – 0.88 points-per-game. Best: Connor McDavid, 2015 (1.49ppg); worst: Nail Yakupov, 2012 (0.39ppg)
2nd overall picks – average 576 career games played, 424 points – 0.74 points-per-game. Best: Aleksander Barkov, 2013 (0.94ppg); worst: Ryan Murray, 2012 (0.29ppg)
3rd overall picks – average 553 career games played, 365 points – 0.66 points-per-game. Best: Leon Draisaitl, 2014 (1.15ppg); worst: Erik Gudbranson, 2010 (0.15ppg)
4th overall picks – average 509 career games played, 305 points – 0.60 points-per-game. Best: Mitch Marner, 2015 (1.09ppg); worst: Griffin Reinhart, 2012 (0.05ppg)
5th overall picks – average 495 career games played, 288 points – 0.58 points-per-game. Best: Elias Pettersson, 2017 (0.98ppg); worst: Olli Juolevi, 2016 (0.07ppg).
6th overall picks – average 509 career games played, 286 points – 0.56 points-per-game. Best: Matthew Tkachuk, 2016 (0.94ppg); worst: Jake Virtanen, 2014 (0.32ppg)
7th overall picks – average 510 career games played, 306 points – 0.60 points-per-game. Best: Mark Scheifele, 2011 (0.90ppg); worst: Hayden Fleury, 2014 (0.13ppg).
8th overall picks – average 337 career games played, 177 points – 0.53 points-per-game. Best: William Nylander, 2014 (0.83ppg); worst: Scott Glennie, 2009 (0 career points)
9th overall picks – average 468 career games played, 268 points – 0.57 points-per-game. Best: Nikolaj Ehlers, 2014 (0.75ppg); worst: Jared Cowen, 2009 (0.18ppg)
10th overall picks – average 357 career games played, 152 points – 0.43 points-per-game. Best: Mikko Rantanen, 2015 (1.02ppg); worst: Dylan McIlrath, 2010 (0.08ppg).
Clearly, the higher you pick typically means you have a chance get a better player, but there are some nice gems found after the top-two picks in the draft too. This is where a strong scouting department can really make or break a franchise. Oftentimes, once you get past the top few selections in the draft, you’re picking players based on projections. Those projections can vary from one scouting staff to another, and being wrong in these situations – such as taking Olli Juolevi one pick ahead of Matthew Tkachuk, or Scott Glennie inside the top 10 – can kill a team.
But if you can get one right, and snag a Mark Scheifele or Mikko Rantanen at the bottom-half of the top-10, you can build a competitive team for many years to come.
The Blue Jackets have held top-10 picks in the draft 16 times in their history. There were hits and misses in the early years, but we’re not looking back that far.
If we go back through the drafts taking place 2009 and later, the Blue Jackets held top-10 picks seven times. Under Scott Howson, they selected twice: Ryan Johansen (4th overall, 2010 – 0.66ppg, fifth best amongst 4th overall picks), and Ryan Murray (2nd overall, 2012 – 0.29ppg, worst amongst 2nd overall picks). They also held the 8th overall pick at the 2011 draft, which was dealt to Philadelphia for Jeff Carter. The Flyers used that pick to select Sean Couturier (ouch) – whose 0.64ppg is second best amongst 8th overall picks during this time frame.
In the drafts studied that took place under Jarmo Kekalainen, the Jackets drafted in the top-10 twice, in back to back years. Zach Werenski (8th overall, 2015 – 0.59ppg – third best amongst 8th overall picks), and Pierre-Luc Dubois (3rd overall, 2016 – fourth best amongst third overall picks). He’s also drafted in the top-10 in each of the last two years, selecting Kent Johnson (5th overall, 2021) and David Jiricek (6th overall, 2022); but we can’t use those picks statistically, quite yet.
Simple deduction here would tell you that Jarmo’s drafting success in the top-10 has been basically flawless. Selecting Werenski at 8th overall landed the team the most productive defenseman in the entire draft class so far – he’s the 11th most productive in the entire draft. Going “off the board” and taking Pierre-Luc Dubois 3rd overall in 2016, landed the team its long-sought after big-bodied center.
While things with Luc didn’t work out as planned, Jarmo was able to flip him for the player taken 2nd overall in the same draft, Patrik Laine – who, coincidentally, is the third most productive player from that draft so far.
His last two picks in the top-10 both already have NHL games under their belts and both look like future NHL stars. Kent Johnson has the 5th most points of any player taken in the 2021 draft so far – sitting just six points back from Cole Sillinger. Only four players from the 2022 draft have any NHL games under their belt, and one of them is David Jiricek – who is breaking the model for D+1 defensemen in the AHL.
In the end, this is a remarkable draft class that has drawn comparison to the 2015 draft, which is far and away the most productive of any of the classes I dug into. This means that any pick inside of that top-5, with our scouting staff’s drafting history, should come out strong. The top-10 of that 2015 draft averages out to 0.78 points-per-game. The next closest draft was in 2013, which averages 0.65 per game. If the Jackets can come away with a point-per-game player or close to (preferably a center), this season of heck was ultimately worth it.
Next. Jackets Sink to New Low in Pittsburgh. dark