Blue Jackets Must Re-Sign Gavrikov
As we enter the real grind of the NHL schedule, the Blue Jackets have gotten answers to some of their questions about what the future of this roster may look like. Injuries have thrown a wrench into many of their plans for this season, but they have also provided opportunity for other players to showcase their value. What this has highlighted for me: this team has to keep Vladislav Gavrikov around.
Gavrikov came over from Russia in 2019 and was thrust right into the lineup for the team’s playoff run (again, due to injuries). Almost immediately, he endeared himself to his teammates and fans because he just fit so naturally into the lineup and locker room. He spent his rookie season paired with veteran David Savard, and the two were an effective shutdown pair that gave the team some stability on the back end after losing a ton of talent in the offseason.
He’s never been a big standout player, and that’s really one of the best compliments you can give him. Originally a 6th round pick (#159 overall, 2015), he’s just quietly become a steady top-four defenseman, who wears a letter on his jersey and takes the toughest opposition assignments on a nightly basis. He’s also been able to stay relatively healthy, which is surprising considering his style of play and willingness to block shots.
The problem at hand: Vlad needs a new contract. His three year deal at $2.8m AAV is expiring after this season, and there hasn’t been much discussion in the media about a potential extension. This has led to his name coming up in trade rumors, which in my opinion, would be a huge mistake.
Why they cannot trade Vlad…
With Zach Werenski out for the year, and rumors that Jake Bean may have suffered the same fate, the Jackets have been forced to reach deep into their depth to ice an NHL team. Call-ups Jake Christiansen and Gavin Bayreuther are fine in the short term, but it’s become pretty obvious that neither of these guys are a viable long-term solution to play in the team’s top-four. Maybe you can keep one of them around in a third pairing/depth role, but beyond that, it’s asking too much.
The team does have some nice prospects coming along, but not many of them are left shot defensemen. And more importantly, they’re mostly offensive-minded guys. The other thing about prospects is that, they’re just prospects until they become NHL players. Before they start making a difference, you’re just hoping they’ll eventually make a difference.
So take this into consideration: the team trades Vladislav Gavrikov now, and for the next 2-3 years while their prospects marinate, the left side defense depth is: Zach Werenski, and Jake Bean; then two guys whose contracts expire after this season, Jake Christiansen (RFA), Gavin Bayreuther (UFA), and a handful of recent mid-late round NHL draft picks who have never played an NHL game.
That seems like it would be poor management – especially when you consider Werenski and Bean being out with serious, long-term injuries. What happens if they both run into injuries again next season? Vlad is currently the third most experienced defenseman signed to a contract by the team. Which says a lot, because he’s only in his fourth NHL season.
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The problem with trading a guy like this is, as soon as you trade him away, you immediately go out and try to find another player just like him.
The team has been rumored to be kicking the tires on Arizona defenseman Jakob Chychrun, which would be great … but consider the assets they would have to give up. And, considering his injury history, any move there is going to be risky.
With all of the pieces put together: one of the only true defenders on the team, leader on and off the ice, fan-friendly personality, and entering the prime of his career – why would the team trade him away to give up big future pieces and replace him?
Why they might trade Vlad…
Maybe the issue is dollars, or term. Werenski is the highest paid defenseman on the team at $9.583m per year. Erik Gudbranson, signed this past offseason to a 4 year deal worth $4m per, is the second highest. Vlad, as a second pairing defensman, should slot somewhere in between the two at a $5.5-6.5m AAV. If he’s asking for more than that, I can see why they would deal him away.
But it shouldn’t be too hard to find common ground here. His value is what it is, and there wouldn’t be much risk in signing him to a 5-6 year deal, if that’s what it takes. Then by the time a prospect like Denton Mateychuk is coming off of his ELC, this contract would be expiring and freeing up space to sign the younger player long term. That’s the way this is supposed to work.
In the end, I have a feeling that the team’s exploration of Chychrun is precisely what is holding this decision up. It makes sense, considering his team friendly deal that runs for two seasons beyond this one. But with the team well out of the hunt for a playoff spot at this time, their best games are in future seasons, and it’s hard to see them trading a top prospect and first round picks away. Which is what it’s going to take, with so many teams in the sweepstakes.
It will be interesting to see which direction this goes. Vlad is an important player not only on the ice, but in the locker room; one who has done everything the organization has asked of him so far. He’s earned a raise, and should be a Blue Jacket long-term.