Are Columbus Blue Jackets Fans "Fair Weather" Fans?

It’s no secret that historically-winning franchises accumulate fair weather fans over stretches of time. Is the Columbus Blue Jackets fanbase any different, or do statistics show a different loyalty?

Are Columbus Blue Jackets fans more loyal than a fair weather fanbase? Expecting one result, I decided to do the research myself.

Anyone who has been a Blue Jackets fan for more than a few years has seen the traditional ebb and flow of fan engagement during losing seasons, and winning ones as well. Personally, I’d love for Nationwide to fill up nightly. This might seem unrealistic, but why not?

Hockey interest is exploding in Ohio’s capital city and the Jackets are accruing more young talent than perhaps the team’s ever had. According to Business Journals, Columbus is labeled, “the new hotbed for hockey in the midwest.” As of 2017, CBSSports.com reported that CBJ ticket prices were fifth most affordable in the league. Columbus is the 14th most populous city in the United States as well, so it’s not like the numbers aren’t there.

Also, the Jackets have been to the playoffs three out of the last four seasons. The team currently holds more current or past all-stars than any CBJ team in franchise history. So what gives? Why aren’t the Blue Jackets filling Nationwide night by night?

COLUMBUS, OH – APRIL 19: Columbus Blue Jackets fans cheer during game 4 in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on April 19, 2018. (Photo by Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

It’s not much of an argument, but it comes down primarily to one thing. Winning. Sure regular season victories are nice and playoff berths are great, but I’m talking about playoff success.

Unlike some storied franchises (i.e. the Canadiens), The CBJ don’t have the luxury of a rich winning history that some franchises do. Of course being an original six team helps, but the Vegas Knights debunk the theory that history alone sells out seats.

A winning past might not guarantee annual success, but it creates a faithful following that is more likely to show up during the highs and lows. The Chicago Blackhawks are a perfect example. With 6 cups in tow, the Blackhawks are coming off their worst season since 2006-2007 with just 33 wins. Does this poor performance translate to attendance statistics? No it does not.

The United Center (where the Hawks play) still posted 109% seat saturation. Impressive right? If population, or titles are your excuse for Chicago’s sustained attendance, let me draw a contrast.

The Minnesota Wild posted 106% attendance last season. They came into the league the same year as the Jackets. The Wild too, have yet to win a championship. What they have done though, is win four playoff series, made the postseason six years in a row and maintained an all-star presence on their roster. It’s also Minnesota, so there’s that.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus is bigger than Minneapolis though. The average ticket to a Wild game also goes for $146, so that should offset things right?

All that being said, does it make you wonder how Blue Jackets fan “perform?” It certainly had me curious.

According to hockeydb.com, Nationwide Arena hovered around 91% capacity last year. That percentage is good for 16,659 attendees per home game. That number sounds respectable. It sounds less impressive when considering venue size, but for the sake of brevity we have to draw the line somewhere.

Anyone with even the slightest familiarity knows the Columbus Blue Jackets didn’t become a “winning culture” up until the 2013-2014 season. I use that term referencing the current postseason trend as well as the historically underperforming teams.

Before crunching numbers to see if attendance grows neatly in hand with wins, I want to mention star power. Many non-chalant fans want to see stars. If you don’t believe that, follow Lebron James’ career venues, ticket prices, etc. The same goes for many athletes. There is no way around this truth. Game goers (especially of the casual variety) want to see “names.”

Up until now, Rick Nash is maybe the only Blue Jacket many hockey fans can associate with the CBJ. This trend is changing and I think it’s showing in ticket sales. Sergei Bobrovsky is a household NHL name and has been for a few years. Out of Patrick Kane‘s mega shadow, Artemi Panarin‘s star power has grown exponentially in just one year in Columbus.

People too show up to watch talented defensemen Seth Jones and Zach Werenski paired up on the blue line. Former all-star Cam Atkinson has the potential to expand his “name reach” if he can string together a point-heavy season on a seriously gifted top line.

Bundle up all this new knowledge and let’s circle back to our original question. Are Columbus Blue Jackets fans fair weather fans? Does consistent winning shown an increase in attendance?

I hate to be the bearer of the bad news, but the numbers suggest that Blue Jackets fans are much more likely to stay home when the team isn’t winning. Don’t get me wrong, I get it. Everyone wants to cheer for a winner. Nothing says loyalty though like showing up to support your team when they need you most.

Without a microscopic, year by year approach there is a very transparent trend in the graph representing the Jackets’ attendance. If you look at it (here it is again), you can see the initial buzz of having an NHL team in town. Numbers were great and attendance was booming, even topping 18,000 in 2001-2002. Lack of success and consecutive losing seasons took their toll just thereafter.

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You notice a pretty steady annual decline until the Jackets bottomed out in 2010-2011 with just 13,658 fans showing up nightly. They went 34-35-13 that year for what would be the second of three straight fifth place finishes in the Metro. Post 2011, the Jackets seemed to be in a holding pattern, hovering in the 14,000s. Stagnation in success will do that.

Not until the Blue Jackets cracked the playoffs for a second time in 2013-2014 with a 43-32-7 record did attendance begin to resurrect. Coincidentally, the Jackets next star was born a year prior as Bobrovsky won the Vezina in 2012-2013. After a disappointing 2015-2016 (which shows a dip in attendance), things are beginning to trend upwards again.

As the Columbus Blue Jackets continue to win and add star power, attendance is climbing anew. Cracking the 16,000 fans per contest for the first time in 12 seasons, the formula for filling up Nationwide seems pretty transparent. Keep winning, sign all-stars. Easier said than done, it’s a monumental task that’s taken years to conduct.

Turning a traditionally losing organization around is no process for the weak or weary. Jarmo Kekalainen has scratched and clawed forward to give fans a product worth paying to see live. So as not to be “that fan” who only shows up at playoff games, I encourage everyone to attend despite the team’s record.

Next: 2017-2018 Season Evaluation: Boone Jenner

My dream is that Nationwide would feel like a playoff game every night even if that’s wildly unrealistic. Perhaps just as rewarding though would be to say we are a resilient fanbase, loyal through thick and thin. Not every team can say that.

Want star players to stick around? Want league respect? Show up before the playoffs and represent the home team with pride. Be better than a fair weather fanbase.

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