Why the Blue Jackets might be smart to move Ivan Provorov soon, rather than later
The Blue Jackets have stormed out of the gates this season and impressed us all with their early start. Still, even with their strong play, they sit with a 3-3-0 record that is good enough for 25th overall. This is all a very long winded way of stating the obvious: this team is still deep in its rebuild, with a long way to go.
That doesn't mean things all have to be bad, all the time. The team should definitely start showing improvement sometime in the near future. Maybe this is the year where they actually do take a step forward.
Still, by the time the trade deadline rolls around in March, I expect them to be heavy sellers. Don Waddell will be ready to start making serious marks on this roster by then. Evaluations will be mostly done, and the only way for this team to move forward is by taking out the pieces that don't fit; and replacing them with ones that do fit.
At this moment, the Blue Jackets have 9 pending unrestricted free agents...
Waddell will have his trade chips at the deadline this year. While I do expect the team to retain some of these pending UFA players (Mathieu Olivier is probably my favorite), unless the Jackets somehow scratch and claw their way into playoff contention this year; the majority of them are likely to be sold to the highest bidder.
Easily the most notable player on this list, defenseman Ivan Provorov has seen his name come up in trade rumors over the last few days. This isn't surprising considering the fact that he's a very inexpensive (from a salary cap perspective) veteran defenseman - and that he's been playing really well on the top defense pairing alongside Zach Werenski.
Ivan Provorov has big value...
It's an odd couple situation, to be clear. Both are left-handed shots, who were drafted in the same year - taken one after another. Provorov was selected 7th overall in 2015 by the Philadelphia Flyers, with Werenski taken one spot later by the Jackets.
Both guys are traditionally offense first, but the reason this pair has worked so far has been Provorov's surprisingly reliable, predictable play alongside Werenski. Ivan's calm demeanor has taken the defensive reins off of Zach, allowing him to play in ways that he hasn't been able to play since the team traded Seth Jones away.
So, with the team playing well and the trade deadline still more than four months away, why would the Blue Jackets look to make a deal now? I can think of one reason that should resonate with this team and fanbase right away. Let's take a look.
Ivan Provorov has stayed remarkably healthy, missing just three NHL games in the last four plus seasons.
This is exactly what we should be worried about. Remember two trade deadlines ago, when we thought we were going to get a nice return on Gustav Nyquist - only to have him suffer a regular season-ending injury, turning a valuable asset into a measly 5th round pick? I don't want to see that happen again.
Provorov has been very lucky with his health throughout his NHL career. The Blue Jackets, on the other hand, have not. At some point, they'll be playing with fire here, and this team can ill afford to give this player away for nothing. Ivan still has a lot of good years left, so the return should be significant.
Obviously, the Blue Jackets will have a big ask on that return here. But, if the Utah Hockey Club is truly interested in Provorov now, while they are missing two defensemen, I have to think they would be willing to pay the cost.
For that team in particular, waiting until the deadline changes nothing. They have the need because they want to turn the corner now. They have plenty of cap space. They also have a cupboard full of exciting young prospects - as well as a ridiculous stockpile of upcoming draft picks (17 in the next two drafts alone). This is exactly the kind of team the Blue Jackets should be talking to about their veteran UFAs.
Hot start does not mean a successful season...
Let's face it, this has been a really hot start for Provorov and the Blue Jackets. Neither the player nor team are going to stay this hot all season long, if history is any indication. Why not strike while the iron is hot, and get the biggest return possible on him now?
They could ask for a different depth option in return. Or, they could just lean on Denton Mateychuk sooner than expected. He's already put up four points in five games with the AHL's Cleveland Monsters - and he certainly looked the part in NHL training camp this year. Many of us think he's ready, and Provorov is clearly one of the guys holding up his arrival.
I'm sure that's the plan, eventually. Dealing Provorov away will open up a job for Mateychuk at some point. I'm just not sure waiting until March to do it, is the correct move. There's a lot at risk here, especially with Provy playing so many minutes.
Still, the team will want to buy as much time for Mateychuk to develop in Cleveland as possible. they'll also be looking for a trade deadline bidding war on Provorov. Fingers crossed that he can stay healthy and keep playing at a high level until then.
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