As last week ended, the Columbus Blue Jackets sat just four points out of the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. After a disastrous weekend where the wheels came off in both games of their crucial back-to-back; they find themselves 8 points behind the Montreal Canadiens for that final playoff spot.
They didn't even score a goal. The Jackets were outscored 9-0 in games against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators. Suddenly, the offense has gone completely dry for a team that was very exciting through most of the season.
Everything seemed to shift with the passing of the Stadium Series game against the Detroit Red Wings. At that time, the Jackets were one of the highest scoring teams in the entire NHL, averaging around 3.5 goals per game. To that point, they had been shut out only twice on the season.
Since their back-to-back wins over the Wings in those huge games? The Jackets are 4-11-1, with two of their wins coming via shootout. While the goaltending has been suspect at best; this team is suddenly no longer capable of outscoring their defensive issues.
In 16 games since the outdoor game at the Shoe, the Jackets have scored just 38 goals - an average of 2.38 per game. This looks even worse when you take into account the fact that 21 of those goals came in three games. In the other 13 games, they've scored a combined 17 goals. That's not a recipe for success, no matter how your defense and goaltending plays.
In that span, they've been shut out six times, including both games over this past weekend. They have not scored a goal since the 7:56 mark of the second period on Thursday night, at home against Colorado. Since then, they've been beaten by a 14-0 margin
What happened?
I have a few theories on why their offense has gone cold. First, we have to look at what changed after the outdoor game, since that seems to be when they peaked. There are two things that could be looked at here.
First, is it possible that this team spent its entire season building up to that game? This would explain the two emotional victories over Detroit that week; followed up by an immediate collapse in their two games through Florida. In that week long stretch, they went from winning the first wild card spot in the standings; to being out-scored 9-2 in two games. This is when their skid started.
The other possibility: did the trade deadline bungle the magic this team had? Some of the leaders in the dressing room told Don Waddell that they could get into the playoffs as constructed. Still, Waddell went out and added a couple of depth players; picking up Christian Fischer via waivers, and Luke Kunin via trade. You can never have too much depth, but did they need to stick with it for so long?
Fischer has been a non-factor, appearing in just one game. But head coach Dean Evason threw Kunin into the mix right away, rolling him out for 12 games despite him not earning a single point. He did this in favor of scoring options like Yegor Chinakhov and James van Riemsdyk, hoping to balance out his lineup with a true bottom-six group.
This gave the Blue Jackets only two lines that were truly a threat to score against top opposition. It made it easier for the opponents to key in on those lines and shut them down. In my opinion, I think Kunin was definitely given too long a leash here. He wasn't bringing much (anything) to the table offensively.
While Chinakhov has struggled, taking van Riemsdyk out of the lineup was an awful decision. He's been solid for this team all year, and has obvious chemistry with Kent Johnson; who has just 8 points in the last 16 games. Gotta think having a crafty veteran like JVR on this line would have helped. And, moving Boone Jenner to the third line, would have given the team another imposing offensive line.
Alternative theory?
The Blue Jackets have struggled to score as the games have gotten harder, and I think there's a direct correlation in that statement. This is the time of year when teams lock down their defensive structure and try to grind games out in that vaunted playoff hockey style.
With the Jackets battling for a playoff spot, they are no longer catching teams off guard. As such, they're seeing #1 goaltenders every night. The young forwards who have carried this team offensively all year are suddenly seeing top defense pairings and forwards dedicated to shutting them down each and every shift.
Coupled with the fact that the Jackets rolling out a low event bottom-six that hasn't done much to help them in the matchup game, it's pretty easy to see why this team has struggled to find goals. The three large offensive bursts they've had, all came against teams that will most likely miss the playoffs (NY Rangers, Vancouver, and Nashville). That's very telling.
In the end, I think it's a combination of all of the above. They ran out of gas after the Stadium Series. We're seeing first hand what a young team looks like in these late meaningful games. Hopefully, the players, coaches, and management are all learning valuable lessons that will help them improve into the future.