As the Blue Jackets blew out the Avalanche Tuesday night, statistics were all the rage. With a 7-2 win, there are bound to be some big producers, though last night the scoring was mostly spread out. 12 different skaters picked up points in the win, but perhaps most noticeably missing from the scoresheet was Matthew Knies.
Acquired by the Blue Jackets as the centerpiece of the trade that sent Kirill Marchenko to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Knies burst onto the scene in Columbus. In his debut, he picked up 2 goals and 1 assist. Two nights later, he added another assist, bringing his points total to 4 in just 2 games played.
Since then, things have come off the rails for #89 offensively. He has just 1 assist in his last 11 games, despite getting every opportunity to produce. Today, we'll take the eye test (which has been mostly positive) and combine it with the analytical numbers in an effort to try and find out what is going on.
The eye test.
If you have been watching the games, it might honestly surprise you that Knies hasn't produced more. He's looked engaged and dangerous with the puck, showing off his size and soft hands on a pretty regular basis. I've even noticed some speed bursts, which is surprising from a guy his size.
Curiously, he's looked most effective when taken off of the top line. Maybe that's a mindset thing, knowing that he has to be more of a play driver when he's away from Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson. Or, maybe it's simply us seeing him on the puck more, since those two both have it so often.
Whatever the case, wherever he has played, I haven't noticed a guy that is slacking off or playing unmotivated. He looks like he's settled in nicely, but still, the numbers aren't showing up. A look under the hood might help us figure out why.
The analytics tell the story here.
Sometimes, when you combine the eye test with the analytics, it all lines up and points you to a solution. That's the case with Knies, at least in my opinion.
Per MoneyPuck.com, only one forward on the team has a higher CORSI% than Matthew (57%), and that's Kent Johnson (60%). This statistic tells us that when Knies is on the ice, the team is getting a 57% shot share. Notably, he's also 2nd on the team in expected goals for percentage (55.8%), also behind Johnson.
These guys are both driving the play. So, how is it that Johnson leads the team in goals (7) and is tied for the team lead in scoring (13 points); while Knies sits at just 5 points on the campaign? If we dig a little deeper, it's not hard to see why.
In 13 games played, Knies has just 19 shots on goal. For a guy who is in a prime scoring role, it doesn't seem like he's shooting the puck nearly enough. Combine that with his shooting percentage being 10.5% (his career average is 16%), and it's not hard to see what needs to happen here.
Matthew needs to be more selfish. He can get to the hard areas with his size, and he has the hands to score goals. He just needs to use those traits better, regardless where he plays in the lineup. More shots on goal means more goals in his case. It's feels as simple as that.
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