The Blue Jackets were actually good for a stretch in their history. Most of that hinged on Sergei Bobrovsky; while Artemi Panarin had two record-setting seasons in Columbus. Both of them were pending unrestricted free agents in 2019.
This team was barely hanging onto playoff hopes that spring. At best, they looked like a wild card team heading into that deadline, which is what makes all of this so surprising. It's pretty unprecedented for a team in that situation to go out and acquire the biggest prize ahead of the deadline. The more obvious moves here would have been selling off UFAs Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin. How much different would things be right now?
We'll start with Bob. Goaltenders like this pretty rarely become available at the deadline. Part of this is because, by this point in the season, contending teams are already set at this position. And, teams with goaltenders like this are usually in contention. For these reasons, it's hard to valuate a cost to acquire someone like Bobrovsky.
I do think the ask would have started with a late 1st round pick here, especially with any salary retention. For argument's sake, let's say Bobrovsky (50% retained) for picks in rounds 1+3. Worth it? It depends on what those picks turn into...
Moving on to Panarin. We have an idea what the cost would have been at the 2019 deadline because of the Matt Duchene trade. Like Duchene, Panarin was a superstar in the prime of his career, producing at a high level. With that said, wingers typically go for a little less value than centers. It's just the way it goes.
Let's assume the Jackets would have gotten another 1st round pick, along with two middle tier prospects in exchange for their pending UFA superstar winger. Same as the Duchene deal, but without that conditional second pick. Instead of a run at the Stanley Cup during a year that was a crapshoot league-wide, the Jackets rebuild would have started off with these extra assets:
Draft picks: three in the first round (their own plus two acquired). Two in the second round (the two they traded for Ryan Dzingel). Additional picks in rounds 4 (2019), 5 (2022), and 7 (2019); as well as an additional third rounder (Bobrovsky trade). Plus, two middle tier prospects and forward Anthony Duclair.
Call me biased, but I think Duclair would have been nice to have on a line with Gustav Nyquist in 2019-20...
With all of that in mind, would it have been worth throwing this franchise into a rebuild two summers early? Or, was the playoff series win worth it?
Final verdict: loading up was the right decision.
Look no further than the next couple of drafts, and the players who were taken late in the first round. At their very best, those first round picks turn into players like Connor McMichael, Shane Pinto or Arthur Kaliyev (2019); or Braden Scheider/Jake Neighbours (2020). Good players, but middle of the lineup guys at best. And, you have to wonder: would they have developed the same here? Hard to say.
The second round picks would have been nice to have back, as would Duclair. So, in hindsight, maybe the Jackets would have done it all again, but skipped on that Ryan Dzingel deal. Aside from that, the excitement of the first playoff series win in franchise history was well worth what they gave up. If only they could have solved Tukka Rask...