If Don Waddell truly want to make a major addition to his team's top two lines this summer, there will be several options available. Those options could include one surprising player from the Dallas Stars, who hit the rumor mill yesterday afternoon. If he really is on the market, let's take a look at what a Blue Jackets trade for Jason Robertson could look like.
I'll start off by saying that I would be surprised if the Stars really did move him. This could be a bluff situation, with the team throwing something at the wall to put some pressure on their star winger to sign a long-term contract and stay in Dallas. But, it is possible that there is fire under this smoke.
The Stars have a ton of work to do this summer. Just eliminated in the Western Conference Finals for the second straight year, they fell painfully short of a Stanley Cup in what might be their final crack at it with this roster construction.
As of this moment, they have 7 pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs), and two important restricted free agents (RFAs). Put simply, they have to make some really tough decisions. With only 8 forwards, 6 defensemen and 2 goaltenders signed for next season, they're already at $88,743,333 against the cap - which is expected to be $95.5 million.
They need to fit an additional 5-6 forwards and 1-2 defensemen in, with only around $6.7 million in cap space to do it. It's going to be very hard for them to become cap compliant while remaining competitive. So, there is a chance that they are looking to tinker with their core.
Stars General Manager Jim Nill will probably want to retain RFAs Mavrik Bourque and Nils Lundkvist, and he may also have aspirations of keeping some of those pending UFAs. This list includes Stars lifer - and captain - Jamie Benn; as well as scorers Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund, Evgenii Dadonov, and top-4 defenseman Cody Ceci.
As it stands, I don't see how they can keep more than 1-2 of those players and ice a cap compliant team next season. Even with all of that in mind, why would they be looking to move off of a young star player like Jason Robertson? Well, look no further than the best recent trade comp for this kind of player. Picking him up might have forced their hand.
Mikko Rantanen got paid to play in big D.
By acquiring Mikko Rantanen, the Stars shifted the balance of power. They may have also cost themselves a comparable younger player.
Rantanen was traded from the Colorado Avalanche to the Carolina Hurricanes in a blockbuster deal. But, after he refused an extension to remain in Raleigh, the Canes flipped him to the Stars just a few weeks later - where he immediately inked an 8-year, $96 million dollar contract extension. This is money the Stars could have used elsewhere. Maybe on Robertson, who will be an RFA after next season and will demand a massive raise over his current team-friendly AAV of just $7.75 million.
In a world where teams have their spending restricted by the cap, it's hard to build a contender when you're paying two guys like this. It makes your lineup very top heavy. While Rantanen and Robertson do bring some different things to the table, they are also somewhat similar. Both are big, left shot scoring wingers.
Their stats are pretty comparable over the last three seasons. Rantanen has played 244 games, scoring 129 goals and 297 points; while Robertson has played 246 games, scoring 110 goals and 269 points. It's worth pointing out that Rantanen did play with a higher scoring team, and on the flank of Nathan MacKinnon during this time.
I'll also point to the fact that Robertson is three years younger, and is a more reliable two-way player than Rantanen. For all of these reasons, I can't fathom why the Stars would have felt that acquiring Mikko ahead of the deadline was necessary. The money they spent here could have been used to lock up Robertson for the same term, and I think he's going to provide value for longer into that deal.
Which leads us to the final part of the article: if the Stars are going to trade away Jason Robertson, what might their ask be? Well, the Rantanen trade comp remains relevant here.
The Jackets can make this deal.
The best trade comp we have in recent memory is this same Mikko Rantanen deal to the Dallas Stars. In that trade, they sent two first round picks, two third round picks, and rookie Logan Stankoven to the Canes. With that in mind, maybe they are looking to recoup some or all of those assets in any potential Jason Robertson deal. If that's the case, the Blue Jackets make as much sense as anybody else.
The Jackets have plenty of cap space to fit a player like Robertson into their lineup, this year and beyond. They have an opening in their top-six for him, and a desire to improve their young core, to take that next step and become a contending team. They have the extra assets. This is exactly the kind of player they should be throwing those assets around to acquire.
This kind of trade won't come cheap, but they have a way to get it done. The thought here is, if you acquire a player like this; the prospects in the system become a little bit less vital. With all of that said, if he's available, it's the offseason; which means that every team in the league is going to inquire - so the price may be even more steep than what the Stars paid for Rantanen. But, lets start with something like this:
Would that be enough to get it done? I'm not sure. But, I do think it will rival what any other team in the league might offer. Gavin Brindley is a very similar player to Logan Stankoven, and they would recoup every draft asset they sent away to acquire Mikko Rantanen.
From a Columbus perspective, this allows the Jackets to move ahead with their coveted top of the draft pieces. And, it doesn't completely burn all of their draft capital over the next couple of years because they have extra picks. If the Stars want a Cayden Lindstrom or Luca del bel Belluz level of prospect, maybe you can work around that and still find a win. And, if the price drives up too high, they can always move on and do something different.
They have to at least try. Jason Robertson is exactly the kind of player they should be looking to add to their young roster. He fits in from a style and age perspective, and if he signed here for the max 8-year term, I could see the Jackets molding into a Stanley Cup contender in the very near future.