The Columbus Blue Jackets find themselves in a situation that is pretty unique in the salary cap era. They head into the offseason with a plethora of cap space and a handful of valuable draft picks. With a desire to improve their roster immediately, they have the tools to do so. What should they do with their two first round picks?
After surprising the league and remaining in the playoff race right down to the wire, the Jackets do not have a top-6 draft pick this year. This is the first time since 2021 that we can say that. After falling one spot in the draft lottery, their own first round pick sits at #14 overall.
This is the second time they've held the #14 pick, the first being in another draft where they had multiple first rounders: the 2013 draft. That year, they picked Alexander Wennberg with the first of three selections in the opening round.
The Jackets also hold pick #20 at this year's draft, as a result of the trade that sent prospect David Jiricek to the Minnesota Wild. They've never picked 20th overall in the draft. They picked 19th once (Kerby Rychel, 2013); and 21st on two occasions (John Moore, 2009; and Yegor Chinakhov, 2020). They may not pick in this slot again this year. Let's weigh the pros and cons of keeping or dealing these picks.
Making the case for keeping these picks.
Let's be honest here: while the Blue Jackets have a strong core of young talent, you can never have too much of it. Their prospect pool went from being one of the strongest in hockey; to one in the middle of the pack over the last two years because of the graduations of some players (Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov, Adam Fantilli, Denton Mateychuk, Kent Johnson, etc); and the trade of one of its most valuable pieces (David Jiricek), which netted them the additional first rounder.
Couple this all with the fact that they've traded away their second round picks for the next two seasons, and you can see why they might be wise to make one or both of these picks. While there are some nice pieces in the system, the cupboard is somewhat thin overall. There's no top tier talent coming on the wings, and every defense prospect looks to be very hit or miss. Lest we overlook the organizational goaltending, which is full of question marks.
I'm not the only one who sees the holes. The Jackets reportedly met with nearly every defense and goaltending prospect at the draft combine last week. They know that they need to improve in both areas, and there will be some quality players available at these positions when the time comes for them to make their picks.
Adding a first round defenseman would be very helpful for their prospect pool. Adding a first round goaltender could be game changing - that's something this organization hasn't done since selecting Pascal Leclaire 8th overall at the 2001 draft. One would be hard pressed to argue with the team stepping up and making these kinds of selections. It would make sense. But, is there greater value elsewhere?
Making the case for trading one or both of these picks.
One problem with picking lower in the draft order is that you're probably not going to get a player who will make a difference for your team anytime soon. This is especially true in this year's draft, which looks to be a real crapshoot after the first 6-8 picks. Unless there's a major faller that lands into their lap with the 14th overall selection, the player the Jackets would take here will either have question marks, limited upside, or a combination of both.
And, I would argue that even if there is a big faller this year, you might get better value out of trading this pick than you would get by keeping it. Does another young center move the needle here? Do we really need a boom/bust winger, or a low ceiling defenseman? No matter what angle you view this from, I don't see any reason to covet these picks like we have in recent years. Any player picked in the range the Jackets are selecting, won't be a difference maker in the NHL for at least 3-4 years.
The best players in this draft are mostly guys with late birthdays. I can't recall another year seeing so many guys born in October or later of their draft year. Which means that their production has to be viewed from a different perspective. Had many of the guys slated inside of this year's top-10 been born a few weeks or months earlier, they might have been mid/late first rounders last year.
Overall, I think this is going to be a fairly weak draft. Don't get me wrong, there will be good players taken. Some of them will turn into stars in the NHL. But, I think there is a lot of bust potential, and we'll look back on this draft in a few years wondering how some guys went so high.
Verdict: buy and sell, please.
Put it all together: weak draft, extra picks, plenty of cap space, already lots of talent on the roster. Status quo isn't the right move here. The Jackets are in prime position to snipe away a talented player from another team and improve their lineup this summer. Even with a rising cap, if some of the perennial contenders want to continue to tweak their lineups, they are going to need to clear cap space. The Jackets could weaponize their cap space and get tremendous value by offering up a mid-first round pick.
Or, maybe Waddell can take advantage of a team that is just looking to get younger and wants to add a first round pick by trading away an established player. Either way, there are a lot of needs on the current NHL roster if this team wants to take a step forward. I'm sure all options will be weighed as the draft approaches in just a few weeks.