Let's pump the brakes a bit on the concern for both Adam Fantilli's contract situation and supposed declining potential. While the results may not be there yet, his approach and improving background skillset certainly are.
Poor Adam Fantilli can’t seem to buy a goal this season.
Despite being in the Top 50 among all skaters in the NHL in expected goals per MoneyPuck (19.1), Fantilli has scored just 13 on the season. He is certainly not on pace to match his total of 31 from the previous season, but he has already matched his assist total from the previous campaign and is looking to expand upon the 23 he already has.
When we adjust for Fantilli’s shooting talent (which attempts to measure how proven or talented a player is at scoring goals), he’s third-to-last in the NHL in GSAx. This statistic means he has actually scored 11 fewer goals than expectations would dictate if you put the same caliber of elite shotmaker in the same situations he’s put himself in.
Putting this simply: Fantilli has been putting himself in the right positions, making the right plays, and taking the right shots. The goals just haven’t been coming due to a combination of poor bounces, good goaltending, and plain bad luck. If Mo were scoring to expectations, he’d be on pace for a 70-80 point season. I’d like to think the eye test backs me up here, as I believe Adam has been playing well all season.
He continues to hone his skating to be one of the best in the NHL in that category, per NHL Edge. He’s in the top 8%, or higher, of all tracked skating stats per the site, and has been all season. The only other Blue Jackets skater of a comparable profile is Miles Wood. The site also attests that, amazingly, Mo is in the top 15% of all skaters in shot quality and is just down the list from skaters like Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon.
With all of this put together, I can affirm that I do not have any concerns as to Adam Fantilli’s future potential or current production. The bounces and luck will come if he continues to play the way he has been, and his potential remains as sky-high as it was when he was drafted.
About that contract situation...
That leaves the question of what to do about his entry-level contract expiring at the end of this season. I think plenty of Jackets fans, myself included, would like to see Mo locked up long-term sooner rather than later. But, I don’t think that’s likely right now.
Fantilli and his agent, Pat Brisson, indicated at the start of the season that they wanted to wait to sign an extension until after the season began, likely to prove that Mo would be worth a heftier price tag than he would have earned over the summer. The results haven’t come quite that way yet, however, and so it looks more likely that a 2-3 year bridge deal may be coming.
This kind of deal may end up being a great thing for the Jackets, however, because if, or when, Fantilli explodes with his scoring again, a short-term bridge deal may look like a bargain even on fewer years of term. It would also give the Jackets more years to utilize Fantilli’s restricted free agent rights, provided another team doesn’t come knocking with an offer sheet.
Regardless, even if an offer sheet were to come at a high value & with long-term security, the odds of the Jackets just letting one of their franchise’s most valuable young players go are slim to none. Provided he stays happy in Columbus, which all signs point to, Mo will be in Arch City for a long time to come.