The NHL held its draft lottery last night, and in case you missed it: an Original 6 (big market) franchise had all of the luck. Shocking. The Toronto Maple Leafs will pick first overall at next month's draft, with the San Jose Sharks again hitting the lottery and earning the second pick.
As we all expected, the Blue Jackets weren't affected by the lottery balls. They did not win either drawing, and fortunately neither did either of the eligible teams with lower odds. They will hold onto the #14 overall pick, at least for now.
I do believe that the main play for GM Don Waddell here is going to include shopping that pick for immediate help. That's because whoever is selected here, isn't likely going to help their team for at least a few years down the road.
The Blue Jackets are in a position where they want to take that next step, so immediate help seems to be the obvious move. But, it does take two to tango. So, there is a chance they do win up using this pick themselves. Today, we'll look at the last 25 years of #14 overall selections.
The #14 overall pick has been very fruitful, all things considered.
Since coming into the NHL in the year 2000, the Blue Jackets have picked in the 14th spot twice. The first time was in 2013, when they took Alexander Wennberg with the first of three first round picks that summer. The second was last year, when they took Jackson Smith.
If we compile all 26 players picked 14th overall since the Jackets have existed, there have been some nice hits. Of those 26 picks, I counted 16 that became full-time NHL players in some regard. There were two massive stars picked at this spot in that timeframe: Brent Seabrook to Chicago in 2003, and Charlie McAvoy to Boston in 2016.
But, there were some very serviceable players outside of them, such as current NHLers Dylan Holloway (EDM, 2020), Cam York (PHI, 2019), Joel Farrabee (PHI, 2018), Jake Debrusk (BOS, 2015), the aforementioned Wennberg (CBJ, 2013), Zemgus Girgensons (BUF, 2012), Jamie Oleksiak (DAL, 2011), Jaden Schwartz (StL, 2010), and Dmitri Kulikov (FLA, 2009).
Now out of the league were hits like Kevin Shattenkirk (COL, 2007), Michael Grabner (VAN, 2006), Devan Dubnyk (EDM, 2004), Chris Higgins (MTL, 2002), and Chuck Kobasew (CGY, 2001).
Out of the 26 players selected with pick #14 since the year 2000, I came up with 5 who were NHL busts: Vaclav Nedorost (COL, 2000), Sasha Pokulok (WSH, 2005), Zach Boychuk (CAR, 2008), Julius Honka (DAL, 2014), and Cal Foote (TB, 2017).
The other 5 players are still developing. This includes Smith, taken by the Blue Jackets last year, along with Konsta Helenius (BUF, 2024), Brayden Yager (PIT, 2023), Rutger McGroarty (WPG, 2022), and Isak Rosen (BUF, 2021). Coincidentally, Yager was swapped for McGroarty two summers ago.
If you take away those 5 developing players, the hit rate with pick #14 is pretty good: 76% of players picked between 2000 and 2020 turned into NHL regulars. With Smith looking like a pretty solid pick, the odds are that the Jackets could net another top prospect, if they do hang onto this selection.
While it's disappointing that they didn't move up in the order, it wasn't entirely surprising. Their odds were extremely low. So, all Waddell and the Blue Jackets can do is get to work and try to make the very best of it.
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