The eye test over the last couple of weeks has shown us that the Blue Jackets can be a pretty good team. At least, that's what the eye test says. The analytics agree. If we ignore these things and look only at their counting statistics? This team is awful. Especially their forwards.
That's just the fact of the situation we're in. Visually, the team looks to have pulled a complete 180 turn from the start of the year. They are defending better, competing harder on pucks, and generally getting more chances at the other end.
So, why aren't they winning more games? Even with their better play over the last two weeks or so, they are a measly 2-4-0 in the standings. Today, we're ignoring all of the play driving numbers and looking at the counting stats. Let me warn you: it's not pretty.
No offense: their forwards stink. No, really: there is no offense.
Lets roll back two weeks, to October 27. The Jackets played in Philadelphia that night and won the game 4-3 in overtime. They got goals from Adam Fantilli, Denton Mateychuk, and Kent Johnson in the first period. Johnson scored again in overtime to seal the victory.
That was a fun night, right? Wrong. We called this win frustrating, because the Jackets blew a 3-0 lead in a game where they still led 3-1 with less than 5 minutes remaining. Looking back, I think this win was a complete mirage from top to bottom.
They scored 3 goals on just 7 first period shots. This wasn't a case of a team coming out and dominating the game. They just ran into an opponent whose goaltending didn't stand up to the task on that given night.
The Jackets followed this game up by losing out the rest of the road trip, despite playing pretty good hockey. But the underlying tone here should have served as a warning to this fanbase. They scored three goals in those games in Carolina and Dallas; but only one of them was by a forward, with Johnson scoring halfway through the third period in Raleigh.
Back at Nationwide last Tuesday, they put together their most dominant win in years; beating the Colorado Avalanche by a 7-2 final. But again, in hindsight, I wonder if they really deserved that outcome?
That game saw them out-shot by a 28-24 margin; however they somehow found the back of the net 7 times. Once again, it looks like they ran into a team with cold goaltending. The Charlie Coyle line found four goals, but once again; the rest of the forwards were relatively quiet, despite the big win.
Since that game? It's ugly. This is the part that might be upsetting to some. Shield your eyes, kids.
The Jackets have played three full games since that win last Tuesday. They have scored just 4 goals in that span. Without looking, can anyone tell me how many of those goals were scored by a forward?
If you answered "1", you are correct. Bonus points if you chose Kent Johnson, because he's the only forward producing for this team. He scored late in the third period against Buffalo, when the game was already well out of reach.
If you've kept pace so far, excluding the Colorado game, the Blue Jackets have two goals by a forward over the last two weeks. Both from Johnson.
What about earlier in the year?
It does not get any better, if we look further back. Working back another two weeks, all the way to 10/13, when the team lost 7-3 to these same Panthers, they have only 9 more goals from their forwards. 3 of those came in that Philadelphia game.
In the 5 other games, they have just 6 goals from their forwards. For the season, in 16 games, they have 27 goals scored by forwards. In comparison, their defense corps has scored 12.
We don't have to look any further to see why this team is awful again this season. They are not getting any offense from the guys who are paid to provide it. The organization is paying this team's forwards a combined $63,110,000.
That's an average of almost $2.5 million per goal at this point in time. At this moment, they are on pace for a combined 142 goals from forwards, and Johnson accounts for roughly one third of that total. If you take away those awful goaltending games from their opposition, it looks far worse. Trust me, you don't want me to keep going here...
Whether it's the roster build, coaching, or just a good old fashioned lack of confidence: this is simply not good enough. They aren't exactly a young group showing promise. This is a veteran team that should be scoring more. While they work to figure it out, another year of hockey is slowly slipping away from the Columbus Blue Jackets.
It's a shame, because on paper, this looks like a damn good hockey team. I can come up with $63 million paper reasons why they should be producing. Too bad the game isn't played on paper.
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