After taking 5 of a possible 6 points on their three-game road trip last week, the Blue Jackets are knocking on the door of a playoff spot. Those tight checking games have given them the luxury to say something we haven't heard in years: they control their own playoff destiny.
Just as we all expected, right?
With 66 games played, they have a 34-21-11 record, good for 79 points. This has them 1 point behind the Detroit Red Wings for the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference-with one fewer game played.
The Jackets have 16 left on their schedule, while the Red Wings only have 15. From that perspective, they have a higher points percentage (.598%, compared to .597%), which gives them the inside track.
In fact, the formula is pretty simple at this point: just keep winning games. The good news is, they aren't just chasing one team. They are within striking distance of the first wild card (Boston, 80 points in 66 games played), the next team ahead in the Atlantic (Montreal, 82 points in 66 games played), and both teams ahead of them in the Metropolitan Division.
Pittsburgh sits in second place in the Metro at 33-18-15 (81 points in 66 games), while the New York Islanders are third (38-24-5, 81 points in 67 games). They have multiple paths to get in, and at this point, they don't even need any help, if they take care of their own business.
Now, it's worth noting that the Jackets are at the bottom of this race when it comes to the first tiebreaker, which is regulation wins. They have just 23 of those. So, their best bet for making the cut is out-pacing everyone in points.
At the moment, the final wild card spot is playing at a roughly 98-point pace. To get there, the Blue Jackets need 19 points in the standings. But, remember the tiebreaker issue. It's likely going to take 99 points for them to guarantee that spot, assuming everybody keeps playing at their current pace.
They would further guarantee themselves that spot if they can take home points in six key games down the stretch.
Six games that could decide their fate.
With 16 games left on the calendar, the math is pretty simple. The Blue Jackets need the equivalent of 10 wins. They can go 10-6-0, or 9-4-2, or even 8-4-4. Any of those records would get them to 99 points and should give them a playoff berth.
But, if they really want to ensure a postseason ticket, they need to circle six dates on the calendar. Those dates are: 3/22 (at NYI), 3/26 (at MTL), 3/29 (vs BOS), 4/7 (at DET), 4/11 (at MTL) and 4/12 (vs BOS).
It's very simple: those are the teams they are chasing, and they will need to beat at least one of them to the finish line. What better way to do so, than to beat them in your head to head matchups?
Now, they don't need to win them all. It would be fun if they did. But, realistically, they probably need to take at least 8 points out of those 6 games. Obviously, more is better.
A record of 4-2-0, or 3-1-2 would probably be good enough, depending on how they fare in those other 10 games on the calendar. If they reach either of those records, they would need to go roughly 6-4-0, or 5-3-2 in those other games. Very doable, especially with the way this team played over the last week.
It certainly won't be easy. You might have noticed that 4 of those 6 games are on the road. And, I'll add that 2 of them are on the second half of a back-to-back. These games will be against desperate teams, who are similarly fighting for their playoff lives.
With all of that said, the important thing to remember here is that they control their own playoff fate. It has been a very long time since we have been able to say that about this team in the middle of March. Lets hope they can keep their season alive down the stretch.