The Blue Jackets squandered another lead on Sunday afternoon. We were quick to blame the coaching staff and leadership for the loss, but as we dig deeper, it becomes even more concerning. They lost this game because of baffling changes on defense.
Through the first two periods, and the first shift of the third period, the defense pairings remained the same at even strength. Zach Werenski and Denton Mateychuk played as the top pairing. They combined for 4 points, which is no small feat.
Meanwhile, Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson made up the second pairing; with Jake Christansen and Dante Fabbro being used sparingly on the third pairing. And with good reason-those two had an xGF% of 11% on the night.
The moment the coaching staff made changes and shuffled thee guys around, this game turned on its head. The Penguins rattled off two goals in the third period, then the overtime winner. All while the Jackets looked on in stunned disbelief.
The answer was right in front of them.
Even though the team was getting pinned into their zone quite a bit, they were holding firm for the first 40 minutes. They bent without breaking, and had a 4-2 lead. Then, inexplicably, Dean Evason's answer to the Pittsburgh onslaught was to shuffle around his usage on the back-end.
At that point, everything collapsed. Christiansen was benched, for all intents and purposes. He saw just three shifts in the third, for a total of 1:52. But instead of benching his partner alongside him, the team found ways to plug him in and out on a shift-by-shift basis.
I'll use the xGF% stat from MoneyPuck to explain why this caused issues. This stat takes scoring chances for and against into account; and combines them to show how effective a player is at both ends of the rink. Basically, more than 50% is good.
With that in mind, let's look at how the usage went on the blue line in Sunday's loss.
Through two periods, Dante Fabbro had played 8:22. Instead of limiting his usage in the third period, the team played him more in the third (6:15). He had a 27.6% xGF% on the afternoon.
This came mostly at the expense of Severson, who had 15:36 played through two periods, but only got five shifts in the third for a total of 5:38. It's a puzzling decision. I thought Severson looked solid, and his 50.5% xGF% backs that up.
However, the real issue was the domino effect that this put on the team's pairings on Sunday. Consider this: when Werenski and Mateychuk were on the ice together at even strength, the team's xGF% was 63.3%. Provorov and Severson were at 53.2%.
Looking at those numbers, it's easy to see why this team was winning this game. If you look at their numbers when playing in any different configuration, it's easier to understand why this team lost this game.
Werenski and Severson together were 29.5%. Mateychuk and Provorov were 20.2%. All the while, they're plugging Fabbro in on every third shift with whoever was ready; despite him being one of the worst players on the team in this game.
You could see the lack of chemistry.
On the late game-tying goal, Werenski and Provorov were on the ice together. It doesn't take a professional analyst to see that this goal happened because one of them was way out of position.
Does this same play happen if Werenski and Mateychuk were on the ice together? Or, even Provorov and Severson?
It's hard to say. But, the metrics tell us that there's a better chance of it not happening, had Evason and his staff not tinkered with success in the third period.
Last point: where in the heck was Mateychuk when the game was on the line? Stapling your second best blue liner to the bench seems like an odd move, even for a coaching staff hell-bent on riding their veterans into the abyss.
Denton sat for almost three minutes late, not seeing the ice until after the Penguins had tied the game. Then, he did not get a shift in overtime. Shameful.