With the Blue Jackets sitting at 3-5-0, there have been plenty of issues to talk about. We knew scoring would be an issue with the way this roster is constructed, however with 29 goals allowed in those 8 games, defense is a bigger concern than expected. Has poor goaltending played a part?
So far, this position has flown mostly under the radar. That's because the team as a whole has been awful. They are averaging 2.375 goals per game, while allowing 3.625. Simple math will tell you that this isn't a formula for success.
Of course, goaltenders are part of the team, and they do share some of the blame. Starting goaltender Jet Greaves is sitting with a .883% save percentage, 3.34 goals against average, and a 2-3-0 record. Cam Talbot isn't faring any better, posting a .867%, 3.40, 1-2-0 stat line.
Like the plus/minus stat for skaters, this never tells the full story, however. A good goaltender can be picked apart behind a bad team. Conversely, a bad goaltender can be propped up by a good team (thank goodness we don't have to worry about that!). So, lets take a look under the hood and see what the deeper stats tell us.
Advanced metrics deep dive.
NHL teams probably have greater metrics systems than the free ones available to the public. Still, these should tell us a good portion of the story. We'll use Moneypuck.com for this example.
The preferred stat for goaltenders in recent years has been goals saved above expected (GSAA). This takes into account the probability of every shot the face being a legitimate scoring chance, based on area of the ice, whether the shot was blocked or not, and so on.
So far this season, both Greaves (-0.04) and Talbot (-0.09) are basically right where they should be. Last season, Greaves was amongst the best in the NHL, posting a +16.5 number in this category. On the flip side, Talbot was amongst the worst, posting a -13.1.
If we only look this far, it's pretty easy to say that the goaltending has been fine so far. But there are some more metrics we should take a peek at, before making a final decision. We'll do this deep dive on Greaves only, since he's the guy who needs to carry the mail here.
One area where Greaves was outstanding last season was in the high danger department. He posted a .769% save percentage on unblocked high danger scoring chances. So far this season, he's down in this category (.692%), which is certainly part of the reason this team has been hemorrhaging goals.
Outside of that metric, Jet's save percentages are basically right on par with where they were last season. From low and medium danger, he's still above average. It's just those chances where he needs to make a big save that are costing this team, because he's down a bit in that regard.
Conclusion: Jet is fine.
To be clear: I'm not blaming Jet for this team's struggles. He's having a bit of a slow start, but there isn't any reason to be concerned. So far, he has not been bailing this team out for their mistakes as frequently as he was last year. A better way to say this might be that he stood on his head for them last year, and now they rely on him too much.
Simply put, the team gives up too many high danger scoring chances. Look at the shot danger chart from his last game, as an example. Not many goalies are winning games with that much blue right in front of the crease. Jet will be fine once the team starts defending better.
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