Should Blue Jackets fans be concerned about Adam Fantilli's lack of production?

The Blue Jackets are 13 games into their season, with a record of 7-6-0 (14 points). That has them in a four-way tie for last place in the Eastern Conference. One reason they have struggled so far: outside of the top line, they aren't scoring consistently enough.

One player who carries a huge amount of that burden is second line center Adam Fantilli. Through those 13 games, he has just 2 goals, 6 points and a -6 rating.

This is a player who played in all 82 games last season, scoring 31 goals and 54 points in the process. While most of that offense came in the second half of the season, it gave us a glimpse into the kind of player he can become.

Now in his third season in the NHL, there was a lot of preseason hope that "Mo" would take the next step in his development, and become the truly dominant scoring threat the Jackets picked third overall at the 2023 Draft. So far, that hasn't come to fruition.

After starting this season with just one goal in his first five games, Fantilli has not found the back of the net in 7 games, picking up just one assist in that span. Should we be concerned? Let's look at what the deeper numbers say.

Two productive comparisons.

I singled out two early season players to use as comps for Adam Fantilli: Anaheim's Leo Carlsson, and San Jose's Macklin Celebrini.

This was not by mistake. All three are young centers expected to become stars for their teams. Carlsson was taken one spot ahead of Fantilli at the 2023 NHL Draft; while Celebrini was the first overall selection the very next year. Like Fantilli, Macklin was also a Hobey Baker Award winner in his only NCAA season.

Both of these comps have started spectacularly. Celebrini is currently tied for the league lead in scoring, with 21 points (8 goals) in 14 games. Carlsson sits just one point back (6-14-20), with 13 games played.

But, hear me out: Adam Fantilli is not that far off. I know it sounds crazy, but look at the deeper numbers. All of the below is per Hockey Reference.

Starting with possession metrics, Fantilli has a 57.3% CF rating. Carlsson is at 61.7%, while Celebrini is nearly even, sitting at 51.7%. This number tells us how much the team plays with the puck when these guys are on the ice.

The Fenwick numbers show similar results, with Carlsson leading the way (59.5%) followed by Fantilli (55.4%) and then Celebrini (50%).

For a top-six center who doesn't get sheltered minutes, those are very good ratings for Fantilli against top competition. It shows us that he's playing a balance all-around game, but the offense is not quite coming yet.

It's also worth considering that both Carlsson and Celebrini are getting first line minutes and top power-play unit chances. In fact, Celebrini ranks inside the top-20 amongst league-wide forwards average in ice time (20:57 per game).

Fantilli is certainly not being sheltered, but head coach Dean Evason deploys his forward units in more of a rolling rotation. As a result, he plays in more than four fewer minutes per game (16:45) than Celebrini, and about one shift less than Carlsson (17:10).

Really, once you dig through all of the numbers; the gap is not very wide with these three at all. The most meaningful stats casual fans will look at are their scoring totals, and Adam is certainly trailing there.

But the most telling number here might be their PDO rating. This number combines the team's save percentage with its shooting percentage when each guy is on the ice. This assumes a league average of 100%.

Celebrini's PDO is an other-worldly 109%. Carlsson is at 102.9%. Fantilli is just 91.6%. A reversion to the mean for all three would definitely close the scoring gap. This is definitely something Fantilli can help change.

While I don't expect the Blue Jackets' goaltending to improve, helping Adam's PDO in that direction - he can do some different things in the offensive zone to get back closer to 100%.

What does Adam Fantilli need to do to score more?

The answer to Adam Fantilli's scoring woes comes down to three things. All of them are within his own control.

First, he needs to shoot more. He's averaging 2.15 shots per game so far, only a slight drop off from his 2.33 when he scored 31 goals last season. However, back to that PDO metric...

He shot 16.7% last season, which is probably not fully sustainable over an entire season, unless you expect the opposition's goaltenders to only stop aroudn 83% of his shots. The other two comps here will find that out at some point.

So, getting more shots on net, especially in dangerous areas, is crucial for him to find his game. Which leads me to point #2: stop deferring.

Too often this season, we've seen Adam looking to make a play to his teammates, even at times when shooting the puck is the obviously correct play. In fact, this is exactly why Kent Johnson has spent his last couple of games demoted to the fourth line.

They are playing too much side-to-side hockey, and getting back to straight lines would help Adam simplify his offensive game. Which is point #3. Simplify. I would like to see him quit trying to do too much. Just use those offensive instincts that we saw at the end of last season.

His last point (an assist) is a perfect example of what I'm talking about:

On that play, he used his speed to get to the puck first. Then, it's a quick pivot, throw the puck into traffic, and Miles Wood gets an easy tap-in goal.

How many times this year have we seen them try to cycle that puck in the corner? Or worse, throw a pass clear across the offensive zone that winds up getting picked off and sent the other way?

I'll answer my own question: too many times. So, getting back to playing straight lines hockey is the key for Adam to find his scoring. The rest of his game is there, and the underlying numbers support that.

Are we concerned?

In the end, no: I'm not concerned about Adam Fantilli's lack of production at this point in time. He's playing very good two-way hockey. Part of it is bad luck, but making the changes I just talked about will certainly help.

One or two good games and the confidence will rise. He may be getting a chance to play on the top line again, which could unlock it all. It did last year.