What to expect for the three remaining restricted free agents from the Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets have done a nice job tidying up their RFA situation, but three very important players still remain. What will their contracts look like?
A lot of the important business has already been handled by Don Waddell this summer. The franchise added some nice pieces at the draft. He fired his head coach - and hired a new one. He signed a big ticket free agent center, and added depth to his defense corps. He subtracted some dead weight from the roster.
But, as busy as he's been, there is still a lot to be done here. The inevitable Patrik Laine trade still looms large. And, more importantly, three very important young players for this team still need new contracts. What can we expect to happen with Kirill Marchenko, Cole Sillinger, and Kent Johnson?
The club has ample cap space to get all three done (currently over $17 million available per PuckPedia). But, in the cap world, you definitely don't want to overextend value on any player. Especially not guys who are still finding their way in the league.
Getting these three players signed is highly important, but it shouldn't break the bank. Let's take a look.
1. Kent Johnson
It may seem odd to say this because of his draft position and offensive skill. But, I think of the three remaining RFAs, Johnson probably has the easiest deal to get done. He had a really tough sophomore season in the NHL last year, and will probably be looking to sign a shorter-term "prove it" deal.
He started the year in the AHL, and it was quickly evident that he was too good for that league. He scored 5 goals and 15 points in 10 games with the Cleveland Monsters, earning his way right back up to the big club.
It was tough sledding in the NHL, however. Johnson scored just 6 goals and 16 points in 42 games. This comes after an impressive rookie campaign that saw him score 16 goals and 40 points.
Worse, his year ended due to a torn labrum injury suffered in garbage time on February 28th. Which leaves us with a couple of questions:
1. Was this season just growing pains, or are there issues with his development?
2. Is he going to be ready for training camp, and will the injury further hamper development?
My gut says that the answer to #1 is that this was just a season of transition for Kent. He showed lots of promise with the puck on his stick, but it felt like the team was trying to use him in ways he's not comfortable playing.
"Playing with more pace" seems counterintuitive to the whole reason they drafted him. He has that rare knack for slowing the game down and making plays, which is all we want to see from him. Put him on a line with a goal scorer and let him flourish.
Answering #2 is trickier. One of the reasons Kent has struggled so far is his lack of strength. He needed to spend this summer getting bigger and stronger, and it seems like that won't be the case. I'm intrigued to see how he starts next season, but he would be wise to bet on his own talent when signing this contract.
Our guess on Kent's contract extension: 1 year, $1.5 million "prove it" deal.
2. Cole Sillinger
Cole surprised the hockey world when he stepped right into the NHL as an 18 year old three years ago. It's not often that a #12 overall (11th in reality) pick steps right into the league.
He never once looked out of place in his rookie season. In fact, I found myself impressed on many occasions by the swagger he brought to the ice. At just 18 years old, he looked like a veteran middle-six center on a lot of nights.
His sophomore season saw its share of struggles, however. He was snake bitten for almost the entire year, scoring just 3 goals and 11 points in 68 games before a late season demotion to the AHL. Worse, he struggled offensively for the Monsters, also.
But this year, we saw a bit of a bounce back from the young pivot. Sillinger skated in 77 games for the Jackets, scoring 13 goals and setting a new career best with 32 points - quietly finishing 6th on the team in scoring.
In hindsight, maybe Cole was just going through the old sophomore slump in 2022-23? Every player has to go through growing pains at some point, and it seems like he found his way through it. He definitely played with more confidence this season.
When you break it all down, Sillinger is already a reliable #3 center on this team - with legitimate #2 center upside. I think the Jackets would be really wise to lock him up for as long as possible right now, before his offensive game starts to really take off.
From the player's perspective, however, that doesn't make as much sense. I think Sillinger looks to sign a bridge deal, with the hopes of cashing in bigger later. Likely, the two sides will meet somewhere in the middle - with the club making sure they get one more RFA contract out of the deal.
Our guess on Cole's contract extension: 3 years, $3.0 million AAV bridge deal.
3. Kirill Marchenko
Getting Marchenko extended has taken a lot longer than I expected. I'm surprised they didn't get this done weeks ago. After all, this is a budding star player in this league.
For all of the high draft picks and top prospects this team has had over the last few seasons, it's Marchenko - taken in the second round of the 2018 Draft - who has been the only guy to emerge as a legitimate top-six winger.
After starting his North American career in the AHL, Marchenko was called up to Columbus in December of last season. He has not looked back.
In 137 games with the Jackets, he's scored 44 goals and 67 points - with his impressive rookie season well eclipsed by his sophomore year. He scored 23 goals and 19 assists for 42 points this season, finishing third on the team.
Best of all - here's where the star power kicks in - he wasn't happy with his season, and only wants to do better next year. This highlights a work ethic that definitely stands out when he's on the ice. He goes to the corners and wins puck battles like a fourth line player; but he has top-six talent.
To top it all off, he has an infectious personality, and he wants to be a Blue Jacket for the long-term. Seems easy enough to come to an agreement, right?
Well, not so fast ...
With a new GM taking over, it's never easy. Don Waddell has certainly done his due diligence and has admittedly heard good things. But, it's a new guy in a new situation, and from afar, a Marchenko has averaged roughly a half point-per-game; so he still comes with some question marks. So, like with Sillinger, I think they find middle ground on a bridge deal here.
Our guess on Kirill's contract extension: 2 years, $4.5 million AAV bridge deal.
Personally, I think a bridge deal comes back and haunts this team in the long-term. They could lock up Marchenko now for a lower AAV now; but obviously, the risk may not be worth it in Don's eyes. So they likely take a gamble, and probably end up paying him more later.
If you've done the math, the three contracts add up to around $9 million in AAV. That's not going to cripple this team by any means - it would still leave roughly $8 million in space to do other things, such as retaining salary or adding other pieces.
We'll check back on our predictions as each player is extended in the coming days and weeks.
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