Have the Blue Jackets Found their Goaltender, or is it a Mirage?
The Blue Jackets lost in Montreal on Tuesday night, after giving up 3 goals on 4 shots in the first 5:48 of the game. My big takeaway: one CBJ goaltender looked really shaky. The other looked really good.
Elvis Merzlikins lasted just 5:48 last night in Montreal. He surrendered 3 goals on 4 shots, as the Canadiens poured it on early and often.
To spark his team, head coach Pascal Vincent replaced Merzlikins with Daniil Tarasov - who promptly came in and shut the Habs down. Tarasov stopped all 19 shots he faced the rest of the way, keeping this game from getting really ugly.
For the first time, I'm starting to wonder if the Blue Jackets do in fact have the right goalie to drag them out of this rebuild. Are we seeing the emergence of the Daniil Tarasov that we've been waiting for?
I'm hopeful. But at the same time, still not fully convinced. Let's dive into some numbers.
Over his last 7 games played (6 starts), Tarasov has faced 236 shots; surrendering 14 goals in that time. That's a .941 save percentage. The team has a 3-3-0 record in those six starts.
Those numbers are very encouraging. But, let's not forget that hockey is a team game, and a goaltender's numbers often reflect the team in front of them. For these reasons, we have to compare Tarasov to Merzlikins over a similar time period.
Let's compare Elvis from January 30 until now. In 9 appearances over that stretch (8 starts), Elvis faced 225 shots. He gave up 22 goals in that span; which gives us a .902 save percentage. He did pick up the team's lone shutout of the season over that stretch as well.
It's also worth noting that he did relieve Tarasov briefly on February 21st in Anaheim, where he gave up 2 goals on 2 shots to a Ducks team that had all the momentum. Really, it was hard to fault Elvis too much there.
I would argue that this was the case last night, as well. The hard truth of last night's loss was that the Jackets didn't come out ready to play. Their defense was awful at the start of the game - just look at where the defense pair is when the Canadiens scored their first goal:
Ça commence bien la soirée 👌
— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) March 12, 2024
Off to a great start#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/hlo5yL3ztm
That's not a good situation for any goaltender to be left in. Both Adam Boqvist and Zach Werenski were behind the net when that puck reached the slot. Can't blame the goalie for that one. But, let's ask some hard questions here.
After Merzlikins was pulled and the game was 3-0, the team picked up their play and really took the game over. They just couldn't solve Cayden Primeau, who was outstanding.
The question I have is this: were they shaky because they weren't playing in front of a confident goaltender? Were they better after the swap because the coach woke them up - or because they had the right guy in net?
In short: is it just a case of having the right style of goaltender back there? He's definitely calmer and more composed than the fiery Merzlikins. And, Tarasov has been playing really confident hockey lately.
Even if we factor one more game into Tarasov's recent hot stretch, going all the way back to January 30th (the same stretch we noted Merzlikins), he's sitting with a sparkling .928% save percentage. That's six weeks of results produced as if he's a high-end #1 goaltender in this league.
With all of that aside, I do think that both guys have benefitted from the team playing better defense, for the most part. That wasn't the case at the start of last night's game. So again, it's hard to look at this through the fine comb and blame Elvis.
But, one guy is clearly outplaying the other. And, the team is clearly playing better, more confident hockey in front of Tarasov right now.
For that reason alone, I think the smart play here is to ride the hot hand. I'd like to see the team keep feeding starts to Tarasov as much as possible. Let's see what we have here, at the end of another lost season.
The least we can do when half the roster is injured, is figure out if we do have a true #1 goaltender.
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