Could the next GM of the Blue Jackets really look to move Johnny Gaudreau?
With the Blue Jackets continuing to struggle through a rebuild, rumors are popping up that the incoming GM could explore a Johnny Gaudreau trade. Is that possible?
One of the more surprising free agency decisions in recent NHL history continues to make hockey people outside of Columbus scratch their heads.
People still cannot understand why the most coveted free agent in his class would choose to sign a long-term contract with the Blue Jackets.
Now, with the team stumbling through the third year of the rebuild, they think it's obvious: the Jackets need to move Johnny Gaudreau before it's too late.
The first question I have here: too late for what? Both sides knew that this team would take time to get back to contention when this contract was signed.
Gaudreau will turn 31 in August. His contract has five seasons remaining after this one, which will take him right up to his 36th birthday. While a drop-off in production is inevitable by then, I do think he still has several strong years ahead of him.
This isn't a player who takes a ton of abuse on the ice. He doesn't get hit very often. He's not a bang-and-crash type forechecker, and he doesn't lay his body on the line to block shots.
In fact, I'm not even terribly concerned about the eventual age-related speed loss. Gaudreau's game is built primarily on slowing the pace down and finding passing lanes. For these reasons, I think he'll age pretty gracefully in the NHL.
The next thing these articles keep pointing towards: he's already shown a drop in production over the last two seasons. Is he really playing up to his $9.75m AAV salary? I have some thoughts on this as well.
Gaudreau signed with the Jackets knowing that times would be tough here for a while. They have - but how much worse would it be without him?
Since signing with the Blue Jackets, Johnny Gaudreau has 32 goals and 96 assists for 128 points in 152 games.
The next most productive player on the roster in that time? Boone Jenner, with exactly 80 points. He's been Gaudreau's center full-time, whenever he's been healthy.
The Jackets have been so mired in their rebuild, that the right wing on this line has been guys like Jack Roslovic, Yegor Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko, Justin Danforth, Patrik Laine ... really, I could go on all day. The team just doesn't have another top line winger right now.
This perceived drop in production makes sense when you realize that he doesn't have a 40-goal scoring power forward flanking him on the other side. Nor does he have a legitimate top-two line center to play with (sorry Boone).
He's picked up 96 assists on a team who hasn't had a single player reach 30 goals in his time here. Again, Boone is good - but not great - in that department (he scored 26 last year, 22 so far this year).
In response to the question about Johnny's production drop, I have to ask: Should we really have been expecting him to put up 100+ points with this team?
I don't think so. He doesn't have much (any) help. The team's next best forward (Laine) has played 73 games combined over the last two seasons.
There's one more hurdle that keeps getting glossed over here as well. Johnny's contract. I have a much different perspective than the one the rumor mills keep churning out.
Johnny Gaudreau signed a 7-year contract worth $68.25M to play in Columbus.
We hear talk all the time about guys getting to free agency and finally being able to cash in the big money. Or choose their destination. Or both.
What people cannot seem to wrap their heads around is that Gaudreau didn't want to go to the beaches of Florida. He didn't desire the bright lights of New York City. He didn't want to play hockey in the desert.
Johnny Gaudreau wanted to live a quieter life in a city where he could comfortably raise his family. By choosing Columbus, he took less money to do just that. Note: he took a discount.
Compare him to Artemi Panarin, who at the time of his UFA deal had never scored more than 87 points in the NHL. Gaudreau was coming off of a 115 point season, and took a full $2M less per season.
That contract he signed, by the way, includes one very important stipulation: a full no movement clause through 2025-26.
My question to the rumor mill folks: What makes you all think that just two years after signing this contract, he's going to waive that clause to go somewhere else? The clause that he worked his entire career to earn, to play where he wants.
Better yet, what makes anyone think that the Jackets would need to eat salary, or throw in other pieces to move Gaudreau? Why in the heck would they even want to?
It's an absurd rumor at this point. It's possible that this team could look to move on from this player by the time this contract is over.
But, with the salary cap set to ramp up in a big way over the next couple of years - along with the fact that this team is nowhere near cap trouble to begin with - I just don't see them wanting or needing to trade away a guy who factors in on roughly 30% of the entire team's goals.
That seems like it would be taking steps back towards the beginning of the rebuild. I don't think there's much appetite anywhere near this organization to do that.
Johnny Gaudreau signed in Columbus. The player wants to be here, and the team needs him here. I do think a shakeup is inevitable with this franchise; but I do not think that shakeup involves #13.
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