Blue Jackets get no lottery luck, will draft 4th overall next month. Who will they pick?
Despite our best efforts, the Blue Jackets again failed to win an NHL Draft lottery. They'll hold the fourth overall pick in the first round of the draft next month.
It could have gone in a lot of directions for the Blue Jackets last night. In the end, nothing changed.
The San Jose Sharks won the lottery and will select first overall, almost certainly taking highly touted (and Bay Area native) center Macklin Celebrini.
The Chicago Blackhawks held onto the #2 overall pick, followed up by the Anaheim Ducks (#3) and finally our Blue Jackets (#4).
My immediate reaction to the lottery draw: while it stinks that we came up short again, at least we didn't fall in the order. I guess that's a sign of how jaded we Blue Jacket fans are by this whole process. We've been stung a few times.
Owning the fourth overall pick is nothing to be upset about, however. In fact, nearly every Stanley Cup winner in recent memory has had a player they selected with a top-four pick. Most of them have multiple.
The Blue Jackets drafted Adam Fantilli third overall last summer. They're about to add another top-four pick this year, in what should hopefully be their last year jockeying for a lottery pick in this rebuild.
So, who might the Blue Jackets use this pick on? First, we'll have to figure out how the teams in front of us may pick. Let's take a look.
The only certainty I see in this year's draft is Celebrini going first overall. After that, it's a little bit of a crapshoot.
The draft begins in earnest with the second overall pick. The Chicago Blackhawks again have a selection that seems unfairly high in the order. After picking a generational talent (Connor Bedard) last year, they'll land another franchise cornerstone type of player here.
This selection probably comes down to one of three players, who are all vastly different in style. Artyom Levshunov is a big, mobile, puck moving defenseman playing for Michigan State University (NCAA).
The native of Belarus is probably the most skilled defenseman available at this year's draft, and could be a hot commodity because of his size and the fact that he's a right-hand shot. I could see the Hawks taking him, if they think he can be a future #1 defenseman.
Another blue liner could go off the board at #2 as well: Russian tower Anton Silayev. At 6'7" and over 200 pounds, he's a much different player than Levshunov.
Silayev's game is built more around playing defense, using his rare combination of size, skating, and physicality to protect in his own end. He's no slouch offensively either, and he's already played a full season against men in the KHL - despite the fact that he just turned 18 last month.
If anyone were going to threaten Celebrini for that first overall pick, I could see a team drooling over Silayev's massive potential. But in the end, Celebrini is just too good, so he'll probably go second or third.
If the Hawks covet a future mainstay alongside of Bedard on their top line, Russian winger Ivan Demidov could be in the mix for the second overall selection as well.
He spent this season in Russia's junior league, the MHL; obliterating the competition for exactly two points per game.
Demidov is equally strong passing and shooting, and could be a really productive top line winger in the NHL in just two or three seasons.
If I were placing any bets on who Chicago is taking second overall, however: give me Levshunov. Right shot defensemen with that combination of size, skating, and two-way play, rarely fall too far on draft day. He could be an excellent compliment to Kevin Korchinski on a future defense pair in Chicago.
Who will Anaheim take? It's pretty obvious, in my opinion.
The Anaheim Ducks have done an incredible job loading up quality blue chip prospects.
Just look at this crop of young talent coming together in Anaheim: Trevor Zegras, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish, Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zelweger, Lukas Dostal, and on and on...
You know what is missing from that group? A big, heavy shutdown defenseman. Gotta think the Ducks are really keen on what Anton Silayev can bring to this mix.
He's exactly the kind of player they need, and with a third overall pick adding to the impressive group of young players they already have, they can wait however long it takes for him to come over and step right into their top-four.
That should be right around the time they are on the upswing. It just makes too much sense.
With all of that said, and those names out there, that means the Blue Jackets must take Ivan Demidov ... right?
No, I don't think that's the case at all.
By the time it's all said and done, 5 or 8 years from now, we may look back at this draft and see Demidov as the second best forward off the board. In fact, I think that's a fair enough bet, if he's developed properly.
But, do the Jackets really need another smallish, skilled winger? That's one thing this franchise is completely set on, both for now and into the future. There is a ton of young skill on the wings, in the NHL and in the system.
The Jackets also seem to be coming into shape down the middle, if the play of Adam Fantilli, Dmitri Voronkov, and Cole Sillinger are any indication. Let's not forget that Gavin Brindley might be a center; they have Luca del bel Belluz and Hunter McKown in the AHL also.
Maybe it's a defenseman? Or, something else?
The Jackets also have a lot of young defense prospects coming along.
Really, this team is in great shape all around, so this pick should just be the cherry on top of an already impressive looking build.
For that reason, I think the solution here is to draft the best player available. That definitely points to Demidov in this situation. It would let them build from a position of strength. Maybe it makes someone expendable for help elsewhere?
Or, let's see this from a different angle: I also think they need to find a certain type of player. Which may change their perception on who the best available player is.
The next step in the development of the Blue Jackets: getting bigger and meaner. For these reasons, if Anton Silayev were to fall to #4, I don't think he would get any further. A top-four of Silayev, Zach Werenski, David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk, could be elite.
But, I have him going off the board with the pick ahead of ours, so I think that means we're looking at someone like Cayden Lindstrom.
Lindstrom has an NHL frame already, at 6'3" and 215 pounds. He can play center, but I think he's more likely to become a supporting winger on a scoring line.
He doesn't have the high end scoring potential or play driving ability of someone like Demidov or Berkly Catton (we'll have more on him at a later date), but he's the kind of player the Jackets really need to add to their system of small, skilled forwards.
Lindstrom is equally impressive on both sides of the puck, with all of the physicality you would expect from a young player his size. In time, I think this guy could develop into a two-way monster not unlike our own Dmitri Voronkov; but he's a better skater.
If it isn't Lindstrom, there are a variety of other options available here. Be it forwards like Demidov, Catton, Konsta Helenius, or Cole Eiserman. Or, defensemen like Sam Dickinson, Zayne Parekh, or Zeev Buium. All of them are solid options.
Or, could the Jackets go "off the board" here? I have a dark horse idea...
There is one guy that I just keep circling back to in my head: Kelowna Rockets sniper Tij Iginla. The son of NHL Hall of Famer Jarome Iginla just keeps on scoring goals, wherever he goes.
Tij Iginla scored 47 in 64 WHL games this season. Then, he added 9 more in 11 playoff games, before scoring 6 in 7 games at the U-18s.
He's rising up the draft rankings rapidly, and while he doesn't seem to get media attention like other guys in this range, I have a hunch that this is due to everyone assuming he'll be a Calgary Flame. Maybe that hunch is correct.
But, it would not surprise me to see a team yank him off the board before Calgary's pick comes up at 9th overall. Why not the Blue Jackets, who could use this kind of skill and compete level in their own system?
Tij doesn't have the same physicality that we saw with Jarome, but he's got more skill. He's a true sniper, laying in the weeds and getting to the right spot just in time to fire his elite shot. And, though he isn't as physical as his old man, he's still a competitive warrior.
We need more compete level and goals in Columbus, for sure.
The 4th overall pick may be a touch high for Tij, but he is my dark horse for this year's draft. I just can't help but wonder what teams think of him. He's only gotten better and better as his draft year went on.
Whoever the Jackets pick, don't be surprised if we don't see them in the NHL for at least 1-2 years. Maybe longer. This isn't an Adam Fantilli type of draft, where the player we get here will step right into the league.
The teams who draft successfully this year, will do so in part because of their patience in development. That will be crucial for the new GM of the Jackets to understand.