We have talked quite a bit early this season about the Blue Jackets and their strong play at 5 on 5. Just how good have they been? Good enough that RG.org have three CBJ skaters right at the top of their MVP list.
Yes, you read that correctly. It's an opinion piece, but it's one that caught our attention because they used an interesting metric.
The approach that Sergey Pryakhin takes in this case, only accounts for even strength play. And boy, does this team have a leg up on the competition in that department. They have a few guys who make a massive difference at even strength.
The Metric used by RG is an interesting one. They analyze each player's goal differential data and compare it to the rest of their team when they aren't on the ice. Then, it's simple math to figure out how much of an impact each player makes at even strength.
At the top of Sergey's entire MVP list is Kirill Marchenko. He gets a 161 impact rating using the metric provided, which is +14 clear of second place. Over his 216 games with the Blue Jackets prior to this season, he's been on the ice for 37 more goals for than allowed.
Compare that to the rest of the Blue Jackets over that span, and it's even more impressive. Without Marchenko on the ice, the team has allowed 124 more goals than they have scored.
But it's not just Marchy. In second place is teammate Zach Werenski (147), with another teammate - Dmitri Voronkov (145) - coming in third. Not to be forgotten is Kent Johnson, who is 8th on Sergey's list with a 94 rating.
What this all tells us is, the Jackets are a very top heavy team at this point in time. When any of these four players are on the ice, they are vastly better. So, it's possible that this team is just one key injury away from being a lottery team.
It also tells us that Don Waddell definitely has some tinkering to do. While the team has generally positive 5 on 5 results, the power-play and penalty kill have both struggled. And, they aren't getting much (any) consistent secondary scoring.
Naturally, one has to take everything into account. This is another metric that should be paired up with other deep stats to come to an educated conclusion. Don't forget to sprinkle in the eye test. Also, as their article alludes to, the NHL's Hart Trophy is voted on by members of the media.
For that reason, it's quite a stretch to think that any Blue Jacket would get serious consideration for that award. Unless Zach Werenski can find another 10 or so points this season. With the way the CBJ power-play has started, that seems unlikely.
Best to look at the big picture.
Overall, the Blue Jackets have scored 40 goals and surrendered 41 to start this season. But, at 5 on 5 they have 35 goals for and just 29 against.
Obviously, these four players have played a huge part on their even strength play. The next step in their evolution is getting more out of other players, to bridge the gap so that Kirill Marchenko isn't doing so much of the heavy lifting.
That, and a capable power-play. But that's an article for another time.
For now, we'll just have to appreciate what we are getting, which is effective two-way hockey from the top of the lineup.