I want to start this article by stating that I think Elvis Merzlikins is one of the best human beings I've had the pleasure of meeting. He's a great family man, cares about his teammates, and deeply, deeply loves the city of Columbus, Ohio, which has been his adopted home for well over half a decade.
That said, I think it's time to hand the reins of the franchise net-minding situation to the young understudy: Jet Greaves.
The past five or so weeks of Blue Jackets hockey have been agonizing. Since the beginning of November, a single goal has decided all but four games, and only one of those four was a win, the 5-3 final score against the New Jersey Devils this past week.
The CBJ have been unable to hold a lead, and it's likely cost them at least a handful of solid, 2-point regulation wins that will come into play later in the season when the final points are tallied and tiebreakers come into play.
Much of the team's struggles as of late can be put on the abysmal penalty kill the Jackets have been operating since starting the year hot on that side of the ice.
Just since the beginning of December, the Union Blue have let in 7 power-play goals on 12 PK attempts, suitable for a 41.67% penalty kill rate, obviously a league worst over that span. Is there any common denominator that might be affecting this issue?
Every game so far this month has been started by Elvis Merzlikins in net.
Is much of this on the defense? Absolutely. Per Moneypuck, the CBJ rank 6th to last in the NHL in Expected Goals Against while on the man disadvantage, and third to last on Expected Goal Differential in the same situation.
While you're certainly not expecting to score goals on the PK often, the team's seeming inability, at times, to generate pressure on the skaters for the other team on the powerplay has created more goals than should have been scored on them in reverse. The defensive structure has been a disaster.
At the same time, however, the adage rings true: your netminder has to be your best penalty killer. And Elvis has struggled with the man disadvantage as of late. Also per Moneypuck, Elvis ranks fourth-to-last among NHL goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected on the penalty kill, allowing -3.4 goals below expectations.
Jet Greaves ranks 20th in the league with a positive 2.0 GSAx when on the man disadvantage, on the flip side.
The CBJ will not be able to succeed this season if they don't tighten up on special teams, and through the early part of the season, Greaves has just been better on the penalty kill. I'm not sure if the past three games have been an attempt to show Elvis off to the Oilers or another club looking for a goaltending trade, but if that's the case, I'm not sure that his trade stock has improved.
If this club still wants to make the playoffs, which should absolutely still be the goal, changes need to happen now. And the best one to hand the starting keys over to the best netminder in the organization.