Scenario #1: Merzlikins or Tarasov stays, Greaves becomes the full time backup.
If you had asked me in September which scenario of these three would be the most likely, I'd have pointed you to an article I wrote about Daniil Tarasov and the season I expected of him. I expected Tarasov to take over the starting position in Columbus following his spectacular late-season play in 2023-2024, with Greaves taking over the backup position full-time.
If Tarasov's early-season results will be a reflection of his full-season productivity, I couldn't have been more wrong. He enters the middle of December as the worst goalie in the organization with a catastrophic -8.8 goals saved above expected, good for 5th to last in the NHL (9 GP). Elvis's results have not been much better, with his own GSAx now at -6.5, which puts him at 8th to last in the league.
I believe there is still a situation where one of the two goalies turns it on in the back half of this season and shows the club they have what it takes to take over the full-time starting position. Still, neither player has done enough up to this point to instill any confidence in me to make that my official prediction. Let's look at another scenario some Jackets fans may delight in.