The 2024-2025 season for the Columbus Blue Jackets could finally determine the future of the goaltending position for the club. Daniil Tarasov is seeing the 3-year, $1.05 AAV contract he signed in 2022 end next offseason, and Jet Greaves will lose his waiver exemption next summer at the latest.
Two years will be left on Elvis Merzlikins' $5.5m AAV deal at that point, so Don Waddell will have a decision to make: will he move on from Elvis and make Daniil the full-time starter, or will he look to trade Tarasov (or his RFA rights) and settle Elvis in as the full-time starter headed into the future after 2025?
If Daniil Tarasov's late-season play is a sign of things to come for him moving forward, it's hard to see a situation where he doesn't come out as the team's starter at the goaltending position for a long time afterward.
After the 2024 All-Star break, Tarasov went on a tear. Of 447 shots against, Tarasov allowed just 35 goals, good for around a .922 Save % and 2.50 GAA, which would've put "Scary Tarry" second and tied for seventh, respectively, amongst NHL goaltenders with more than 25 GP. Columbus hasn't seen numbers like those since a confident "Bob" was still on "the force" years ago.
The question about Tarry has never been his potential; however, it's been about his health. Daniil has missed significant amounts of time over the past few seasons, including the beginning of last year, when the 6'5", 201-pound goalie from Russia missed all of training camp and didn't play in his first game until December 16th.
Tarasov, however, for the first time since I can remember says he's 100% healthy and ready to go for Training Camp. Time will tell whether this is true for the long term, but if Tarasov achieves the sky-high potential that made the Jackets draft him in 2017 in the first place, Columbus has likely, finally, found their starter in the crease for years to come.
One bold prediction: Tarasov will start in at least 40 games this season, post above a .910 SV% and sub-3.00 GAA, and will earn the long-term starting job moving forward, resulting in an Elvis buyout next offseason.
This is likely the boldest prediction I have made in this series. Tarasov has not truly posted a healthy season, in my opinion, since 2019-2020, when he was playing on loan for the HC Ässät Pori in the highest level of Finnish hockey.
From what I can gather, however, Daniil has also not spent an offseason in years focusing entirely on his rehab. Tarasov shared that he returned to Columbus early this offseason to work with team doctors and the club to bring himself to 100%. I'm confident in Tarry, and I think his play this season will speak for itself.