The Blue Jackets continue their trip through Western Canada with a visit to Edmonton to take on the Oilers tonight. This could be one of the most difficult challenges they will face this season.
In what looks like a make or break road trip to start the season, the Blue Jackets have locked themselves into the "break" side of things so far. They are 0-3-0 through the first three games, while being outscored 12-6.
Though they have been close in two of the games, they have not been able to bring home a single point so far. It is not good enough, and the challenge to get some value out of this trip is now extremely hard.
Tonight, they face an Edmonton Oilers team that has lost three in a row; their most recent a 9-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche on home ice on Saturday night. Then, they finish up the trip tomorrow night in Seattle.
They'll play twice in about 25 hours, with travel through customs in between. The odds of this becoming a 5 game losing streak are extremely high. It's not impossible to win these games, but they have to dig way deeper than they have through the first three stops of the trip.
The Opponent
The Edmonton Oilers are back-to-back runners up for the Stanley Cup. They have won the Western Conference two years in a row, and though they have had some roster turnover; they remain one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the NHL.
That's because they have two of the league's most potent weapons. Connor McDavid leads the Oilers in scoring, with 5 goals and 22 points in 16 games.
His old buddy Leon Draisaitl (10-8-10), and Edmonton lifer Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5-11-16) would also both lead the Blue Jackets in scoring right now.
It took defenseman Evan Bouchard a while to get his game going, but he's now up to 10 points (2 goals) - all scored in his last 10 games; while a familiar face named Jack Roslovic (2-5-8 in 14gp) rounds out the top 5.
Outside of their stars, they struggle to find contribution from their depth players. Overall, their scoring has been relatively pedestrian. They only have three more goals than the Blue Jackets, with two additional games played.
As usual, the Oilers are struggling on defense. They have given up 57 goals in 16 games, a team goals against average of 3.56. Starter Stuart Skinner has just a .889% save percentage in 11 games played.
As a result, the Oilers are 6-6-4 (16 points), currently outside of a playoff spot.
Like their forwards, they are top-heavy on the back-end, with Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, and Darnell Nurse doing a lot of their heavy lifting. A team like the Blue Jackets has to try to take advantage of their bottom-3 on defense at any given opportunity.
The Good Guys
The Blue Jackets are also not in a great place at the moment. They have also lost three in a row while the coaching staff scrambles to find the right line combinations.
Why, oh why, did they change things up during a winning streak?
The top line they used on Saturday night was pretty effective, scoring all three of their goals in a losing effort in Vancouver. Kirill Marchenko (2g, 1a) and Dmitri Voronkov (1g, 2a) each had three points, which helped Adam Fantilli find the scoresheet in his first game between them, with 2 assists of his own.
Aside from that line? I didn't think the forwards for the Jackets played very well at all, outside of Kent Johnson. The new-look second line that had him with Sean Monahan and Miles Wood had some dangerous moments thanks to KJ's surging play.
But, the third and fourth lines were not good enough. Worse, we didn't get to see them for a full game because Mathieu Olivier was ejected for boarding before the halfway mark. He's lucky to avoid further discipline for that one, so he should be back in the lineup tonight.
I'll be interested to see if there are any changes made to the forward lines today. Since the team is out west, practice will be early this afternoon, and we should get an idea then.
Defensively, it was really nice to see Denton Mateychuk back on the ice. He quietly makes a massive impact for this team, and I don't see any reason to move him off of the top pairing alongside Zach Werenski.
In goal, the rotation should continue, which means Jet Greaves will man the crease tonight.
Three Keys to Success
1. Stay out of the box. Almost one third of Edmonton's offense this season has come on the power-play (15 goals). They have the second-best unit in the NHL, sitting at 33.3%. The Blue Jackets can ill afford to take penalties tonight.
2. Contain their top guys. I don't think you can ever completely shut down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but you have to at least contain them and not allow them to dominate. The Jackets have to find ways to slow them down, while avoiding penalties (see key #1).
3. Dominate their depth. This is the kind of game where the Jackets are going to need their bottom six forwards to be at their very best. The Oilers are a top-heavy team, so you have to take advantage of their bottom guys to beat them.
We aren't to the point of "crucial must win game" yet, but we are getting close. A loss tonight means the Blue Jackets will be tied with Buffalo for last place in the Eastern Conference, with the same number of games played.
That's not going to be good enough for our expectations. While we get the ebbs and flows of a season, this team cannot afford to have another bad year. Hopefully they can find a way to win against one of the fastest teams in the NHL tonight.
Another game in the Western Conference means another late start. Puck drop for this one is scheduled for 8:30 Eastern. You can tune in via all of the usual methods.