One third of the way through the season, the Blue Jackets have a nifty 12-12-3 record (.500%). They're on pace for 82 points, which would be quite a jump from last year's 66 point effort. But this most recent road trip begged one important question for me: how good would this team be with even middle of the pack goaltending?
The Jackets are producing at a level never seen in franchise history. Through 27 games, they're averaging 3.41 goals per game - 7th-best in the NHL, and on pace for around 280 goals for. All six of the teams ahead of them are well into the playoff race. In fact, all of them have a winning percentage of .600 or above.
Now, it goes without saying that goaltending is not the only thing separating the Blue Jackets from these teams. But, it's also impossible to ignore that in spite of improved play from Elvis Merzlikins, goaltending has been arguably the biggest issue on the team so far this season.
It's getting better, but still isn't good enough...
The Jackets are currently allowing 3.56 goals against per game. Doing the math, over an 82 game season, that puts them around 292 goals against. This would be the lowest number we've seen in a full season since they surrendered just 232 in 2018-19. That was when Sergei Bobrovsky was in between the pipes.
They haven't had a team goals against average below 3.00 since 2019-20, when they averaged 2.67 goals against during the COVID-shortened season. That was on a team that still had John Tortorella behind the bench, and it's fair to pin this on his tight defensive structure. It's worth noting that they made the playoffs in both of the above seasons, with teams that generated a lot less offense.
Dean Evason is running a tighter ship here, and the on-ice results are improving. But still, they are only on pace to allow roughly 8 fewer goals than they did in all of last season. This is concerning:
This team is scrapping for a playoff spot in spite of goaltending that is almost twice as bad as any other team, by this metric. #CBJ https://t.co/N1h3P38N6F
— Union and Blue (@UnionAndBlue) December 8, 2024
How good would this team be with average goaltending?
Middle of the pack in the NHL so far this season, has teams around 3.00 (15th)-3.04 (17th) goals against per game. With 27 games under their belts, the Jackets are 30th in the league with an average of 3.56 goals against per game (96 goals allowed). If they were even 16th or 17th in the league (3.04 average), they would have only allowed 82 goals. That's a 14 goal difference through 27 games.
Extrapolate that out over 82 games, that's around 249 goals against in a season. Surely, with the way the team has found offense early on this season, that's good enough to at least compete for a playoff spot. Maybe even sneak in.
As I said earlier, it's impossible to pin this all on the goaltending. But, the team has been playing much better, and it's hard to ignore the elephant in the room. Elvis Merzlikins has given this team a chance on some nights. On other nights, it's been a disaster. Daniil Tarasov looks like he doesn't even belong in the NHL this season.
This will be one of the biggest tasks for Don Waddell to address next off-season. Maybe even the biggest.