Why Can’t the Columbus Blue Jackets Hold onto the Lead?

Dec 14, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins (90) and defeneseman Nick Blankenburg (77) and forward Adam Fantilli (11) try to cover up a loose puck against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 14, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins (90) and defeneseman Nick Blankenburg (77) and forward Adam Fantilli (11) try to cover up a loose puck against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
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We’re now 31 games into the NHL season, and an identity has been formed for this team. The Columbus Blue Jackets have proven that they cannot hold onto the lead – no matter how big.

If you called last night’s win the most embarrassing in franchise history, it would be hard to debate. In fact, the only other time I can ever recall being upset about this team winning a game, was last April when they beat the Pittsburgh Penguins in a meaningless game that thrust them out of the best odds of landing the first overall pick at the NHL Draft.

Last night’s win in Toronto definitely ranks up there with that level of disappointment. Not because the Jackets are, or should be tanking – but rather, because they jumped out to a 5-0 lead in style. They went into the second intermission riding high, with a massive lead against one of the most skilled teams in the NHL. All four lines were playing pretty well. Elvis Merzlikins looked solid. It seemed like our night, finally.

Yet somewhere in my gut, something told me this one wasn’t over. Maybe it’s the fact that we’ve been stung one too many times by this team this season. Maybe that had something to do with the fact that Toronto can score goals in a hurry. Maybe it was because it felt like a mirage – the Leafs were controlling a lot of the play, but weren’t getting saves. Ultimately, it was all of the above.

Toronto scored just 38 seconds into the period. Gulp. Then added another one at the 3:49 mark. Double gulp. The Jackets then pushed back and had some nice shifts, creeping back into the game. They even earned a power-play shortly after it became a 5-2 game. With six minutes remaining, and a three goal lead, it started to feel possible that they could escape this one. But alas, no, this is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Or should I say, BLEW (it) Jackets?

Dec 14, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) reacts after scoring the tying goal to send the game to overtime against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 14, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) reacts after scoring the tying goal to send the game to overtime against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /

The Leafs scored at the very end of a late period power-play to make it 5-3. At that point, I said to myself: “we’re losing this game”. It sure felt like it. That’s the level of confidence I have in this team to play with the lead right now. They are so fragile, no matter how great they play in the first half of the game; that I completely expect them to lose.

Of course, with goaltender pulled, Toronto scored with 1:15 left – and again exactly 30 seconds later to tie the game. I don’t care how young a team is, or how new they are – when you have a 5-0 lead in the third period, you have to close that game out. You cannot let any team come back and tie it up, no matter how many star players they have. This is just unacceptable, and I have some thoughts on why it keeps happening…

The Blue Jackets have blown leads in 19 of their 31 games this season – including multi-goal leads in 9 of those games.

Obviously, yours truly doesn’t have access to the locker room, so I can’t say for sure what’s causing this team to change the way they play in the third period. What I am certain of: they are changing the way they play in the third period. If you’re watching the games, you see it. Even if not, just look at the way the games are turning out.

Dec 14, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov (35) makes a save against Columbus Blue Jackets forward Johnny Gaudreau (13) during overtime at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 14, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov (35) makes a save against Columbus Blue Jackets forward Johnny Gaudreau (13) during overtime at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /

Overall this season, the Jackets are playing at a -18 goal differential. They’re playing through the first two periods at a solid +9 differential…which means they are -27 in the third period. Whether it’s coaching adjustments, inexperience, or the players just playing a safer (more timid) game; this team is completely falling apart in the third period on a way-too-often basis.

Last night was the most blatant example of a team collapsing, as I’ve seen in over 30 years watching hockey. For 40 minutes, we saw a team that swarmed the puck carrier at every turn. They took away time and space, supported each other; and were making short, crisp passes to move down the ice as a unit.

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As soon as the puck dropped to start the third period, they fell into that terrible “prevent” defense. Nobody wanted the puck on their stick for more than a half second. Nobody was pressuring the puck in the defensive zone. You could see it on the first Toronto goal, where the Jackets were way too slow to get to their marks. When you leave time and space for skilled players, they are going to make you pay – no matter how far ahead you are in the game.

This is the problem that has plagued this team all season long. When they are playing well, they are marking their checks quickly, giving each other easy passes, and forechecking hard. With the lead, they’re dropping into a 1-2-2 coverage scheme and no longer doing the things that has gotten them the lead to begin with. Look at the time and space the Leafs have on the game-tying goal:

If it’s a coaching adjustment that is being made, I’ll go as far as saying that it’s time to seriously question whether or not we have the correct coaching staff. We’re more than a third of the way into the season, and that’s plenty of time to figure out how to make adjustments to playing with the lead. This is the NHL.

If it’s not a coaching adjustment or a scheme change, the problem lies between the ears of the players. In that case, is it possible that the early season benchings and healthy scratches have led to them playing in fear of making a mistake? That’s something that can also be fixed by the coaches. Either way, they have to change in their third period approach – and again, that falls onto the shoulders of the coaches.

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Whatever the case, this team needs a shakeup in a bad way. I don’t expect them to fire Pascal Vincent just three months into his NHL head coaching career. So it falls on him to make the necessary changes to his approach and help this team figure out their third period funk. That’s the job he signed up for, and time is of the essence here. We’ll know by season’s end, if he was the right guy for the job.

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