Ten Games In: How Do the Columbus Blue Jackets Look?
We’re ten games into the NHL season, the first checkpoint where we can really start grading the team’s performance overall. Let’s take a look at how the Blue Jackets look so far.
After last night’s thrilling win against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Jackets reach the ten game mark with an even 4-4-2 record (10 points). They sit fifth in the Metropolitan division, two points back from Carolina and the New York Islanders; and one point ahead of the Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers.
It’s easy to calculate their points-per-game pace because they’re averaging exactly one – which means that if they were to play out the thread as they have, the Jackets would finish the season with 82 points. The NHL is a long season, but if you break it down into ten game segments, playoff contenders come away with roughly 11.5 points for every ten game stretch. From that perspective, the Jackets are pretty close; but you can quickly see how every game matters.
Comparing their start to last season is pretty interesting. Last year, they went 3-7-0 through their first 10 games. They were essentially out of contention for a playoff spot by Thanksgiving. That almost certainly won’t be the case this year, unless they have a serious collapse. Even though a lot of us have been disappointed in some of their performances so far, they’re actually playing pretty much right at the pace we predicted in the preseason.
Statistical Predictions for the 2023-24 Blue Jackets. light. Related Story
The difference between last year and this year? Goals against. Remarkably, this team has actually scored one fewer goal (26) than last season’s Jackets did through the first 10 games (27). Last year they gave up 43 goals in that span; but so far this year they’ve surrendered just 32. Attribute that success to much improved goaltending, which comes on the back of a deeper, more experienced defense corps – as well as a new and improved system that keeps shots outside of the high danger areas.
We believed it, we came back, & it was AWESOME! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/ti9mXEfJiT
— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) November 3, 2023
Impressively, the Jackets didn’t get an easy schedule to start the year, either. The teams they’ve played so far have a combined record of 50-36-13. They’ve knocked off teams like the NY Rangers, who have only two losses so far this season; as well as the Tampa Bay Lightning. They’re playing pretty well consistently, which is something we could not say for last year’s team.
There have been standouts both good and bad for the Jackets so far. Let’s look at three from each perspective.
We’ll start with the negative side of things. Patrik Laine may be in the most disappointing situation to start the season, but it’s not his fault – he’s been injured. So, we’ll focus on three guys who have no excuses: Johnny Gaudreau, Kent Johnson, and Alexandre Texier.
Gaudreau hasn’t been bad. In fact, he’s been moderately productive, with 5 points through 10 games. But, a 41-point pace is not good enough from the guy who is paid and expected to carry the majority of the offensive load for this team. He’s currently sixth on the team in scoring; but imagine where they could be in the standings if he had 8 or even 10 points. Now, he has been snake bitten goal-wise, and maybe having Laine out of the lineup has made it easier to defend him. With that aside, if this team is going to compete for a playoff spot, they need more out of #13.
We can say similar things about Texier, who hasn’t been bad. In fact, he’s been a pretty reliable two-way player. But, he has yet to score a point through 10 games this season, a year in which he’s spent a lot of time in the top-six forward group. Erik Gudbranson has more goals than Texier has points. Think about that for a second.
I don’t have many positives to say about Kent Johnson’s start, so I’ll just say this: there is no confidence here. Both with the player, and with the coaching staff. Something has to give. He has just 1 goal and 2 points in 8 games played; has been a healthy scratch twice, and benched on multiple occasions. Hopefully he snaps out of it soon.
To the positive side of things, three players who deserve recognition: Ivan Provorov, Jack Roslovic, and Elvis Merzlikins. It was hard choosing all of these guys over Boone Jenner, who is scoring at a 40-goal pace, but in the end I had to go with these three because they entered the season with different expectations.
Who would have thought that one tenth of the way into the season, that Ivan Provorov would be leading the Blue Jackets in scoring? Not me. He has yet to score a goal, but his team-leading 8 assists (and points) have him surprisingly at the top. His overall play has been pretty good as well, and seeing him paired with rookie David Jiricek on a nightly basis has been fun to watch. He won’t keep up this torrid pace, but it’s worth pointing out that these two will still make a darn fine second defense pairing. Provorov has proven to be exactly what the Jackets needed behind Zach Werenski.
Personally, I thought Roslovic had played his way out of Columbus. That he has started out with 6 points in 9 games, is remarkable to me. An early season healthy scratch seems to have lit a fire under his behind – he’s been playing like he’s on hot coals ever since. Currently, he’s playing on the top line, though as a winger. Maybe using him at center has been the problem all along?
Lastly, yes, I chose Elvis Merzlikins as a positive standout. He’s sporting a 3-2-2 record, but looks like a rejuvenated man in net. He’s no longer over-playing his position, looks calm and confident, and has given this team a chance to win in nearly every one of his starts this season. What more can you ask for from a #1 goaltender? His save percentage so far is .902% – last year after ten games, it was .864%. He had been pulled multiple times, and four of his first seven starts saw him surrender 4+ goals. The return of Elvis has been the difference for this team so far, as they try to find their identity.
Overall, you can definitely see that they are still a young team trying to find their way, but they show flashes of dominance here and there, and aren’t as susceptible to long stretches of lost momentum. Once they figure out the system completely and learn how to play consistently, this is a team that is well on its way.
"That’s the type of win that builds CHARACTER and builds CONFIDENCE." - Head Coach Pascal Vincent 😤💥
— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) November 3, 2023
Hear more from Paz, Boone Jenner, Erik Gudbranson and Dmitri Voronkov ⬇️
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The next ten games don’t get any easier. In that stretch, the Jackets are on the road six times (twice at Washington). They’ll face three teams who made the playoffs last season (Florida, Dallas, NY Rangers); as well as resurging teams like the Detroit Red Wings. The other opponents? Those pesky Pittsburgh Penguins, a team that has already beaten them once (Philadelphia), and then Arizona and Chicago. Hopefully the Jackets can continue improving game by game, and after the next 10 games, we’ll have some more positives to talk about.
Next. Kent Johnson Changes Representation: An Alternate Perspective. dark