Five Reasons the Blue Jackets Won’t Make the Playoffs
This week we’re taking a dive into a two-part series, discussing why the Blue Jackets will – or will not – make the playoffs this season.
I find it’s always better to break the bad news first. In this series, we’ll start by covering some of the potential pitfalls for this team, that could prevent them from contending this season. In short, we’re asking this question: what could go wrong for this team?
Obviously, it’s hard to predict where the team might finish the regular season ahead of time. We don’t have a crystal ball to have a glimpse into the future. On paper, this is probably the most talented team the Blue Jackets have ever had, one that should be on the upswing very soon. But as we know, this franchise never seems to find luck, and for that reason (logically), we are all skeptical. So, lets take a look at where things could go haywire in a hurry.
#1 Reason the Blue Jackets don’t contend: time is not on our side.
This is a two-fold statement. First, this team is incredibly young, especially at its competitive core. Sure, they have some solid veteran pieces like Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner, Patrik Laine, and Zach Werenski. They even added some nice pieces to the back end. But, the competitive window for this team only opens when the younger guys are ready to take on bigger roles. Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, David Jiricek, Cole Sillinger, and on down the list.
The other side of this equation: even though they added some experience to the blue line, this team has to gel before they’re ready to contend. Even with all of the talent, believe it or not, this takes time. It may not take the entire season, or half of the season, or less; but there will be growing pains in both the age of the players, and their experience together.
This is the main reason I don’t see this team competing for a playoff spot quite yet. The solutions to their issues on the blue line and down the middle are in place, but they’re going to need time to adjust and grow together. This year should be about building a foundation for success, and then next year they should be looking to use that foundation to contend for more.
#2 reason the Blue Jackets don’t contend: the locker room is in shambles.
Don’t take that as a statement, it’s more of a question. After the hiring (and subsequent resignation) of Mike Babcock, the entire hockey world started asking about a possible division in the Columbus Blue Jacket locker room. A lot of the players have spoken out in the opposite fashion, saying it’s brought them closer together. We hope that’s the case.
Patrik Laine believes the Blue Jackets are a tighter and more supportive group right now, and they're excited to get training camp underway.#CBJ | #CountdownToFaceOff | @DMaetzMedia pic.twitter.com/mQucTkSoho
— Bally Sports Columbus (@BallySportsCBUS) September 18, 2023
But if it’s not, this season is doomed before the puck even drops. As soon as the news broke about Babcock, veteran players including captain Boone Jenner, star forward Johnny Gaudreau, and tough guy Mathieu Olivier; all came to defense of the photo sharing practice used by Babcock to get to know them.
The young players had an entirely different experience, however. They were not comfortable with what happened. Our hope is that both sides were able to come to some sort of middle ground and work through their differences. There have been rumblings that some of the team meetings were pretty heated, so it’s something to be aware of as the season approaches. Few things will doom a team quite like locker room disfunction.
#3 reason the Blue Jackets don’t contend: the goaltending stinks.
One of the other things that will doom a team, regardless their talent? Awful goaltending. The Jackets had some of the worst goaltending in the NHL last season from top to bottom, really except for a solid stretch of play from since-traded Joonas Korpisalo. They’re taking a big risk by running it back with Elvis Merzlikins and oft-injured youngster Daniil Tarasov.
Will their faith in the two pay off? Hard to say at the moment, but early indications are somewhat concerning. Elvis struggled to find the puck on two of his three goals against in his preseason debut – and mishandled it on the third Pittsburgh goal. I’m willing to attribute that to rust, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Worse; Tarasov hasn’t even practiced with the team this fall, finding himself rehabbing through yet another injury. If either one of these guys can’t take the reins and take the starting job for this team this season, they’re in big trouble. The roster is good, but it’s not good enough to overcome poor goaltending. I have a feeling that this will be a question mark with this team all season, unless we’re proven wrong.
#4 reason the Blue Jackets don’t contend: the wrong guys for the job.
GM Jarmo Kekalainen and President John Davidson put all of their eggs into the Mike Babcock basket – only for it to blow up in their faces. Their preferred head coach didn’t even make it to training camp – and they had to scramble and replace him with Pascal Vincent, a guy they twice passed over for the job. One question comes up for me: do they have the same faith in Vincent, that they had in Babcock?
Hear from Pascal Vincent and new assistant coach Mark Recchi about why this role with the @BlueJacketsNHL is such an ideal fit.#CBJ | #CountdownToFaceOff | @DMaetzMedia pic.twitter.com/0k5jBaWSuw
— Bally Sports Columbus (@BallySportsCBUS) September 26, 2023
For years, Vincent was considered one of the top up-and-coming coaches in hockey; the heir apparent to Paul Maurice with the Winnipeg Jets. But suddenly, he gets thrown his first NHL head coaching gig on the backs of a scandal – at 52 years old. Obviously, we’re all relieved to have had Vincent stick around after again being passed over by the Jackets. By all accounts, he’s got a bright future in the role.
But is he suited to lead the NHL’s youngest team out of the cellar? This team desperately needed structure and accountability last season, and it’s up to the first time head coach to bring that after being promoted from behind the very same bench. It will be interesting to see if he can straighten those issues out, while also rebuilding a potentially fractured locker room that is chock-full of rookies. Oh, and with question marks in goal. If he can do all of these things, this team might be in the playoff hunt, and he might be in the Jack Adams hunt.
#5 reason the Blue Jackets don’t contend: the pesky injury bug.
We might be beating a dead horse at this point, but it’s just the truth of the matter. Without the stack of injuries the Jackets had last season, they really weren’t all that bad a team. Sure, coaching staffs and players all love telling the media how you have to just play through it, next man up, and so on. But when your defense corps features only three players with more than 200 games played, and you lose a guy like Zach Werenski for the entire season, you’re doomed.
Nearly every key player for the team lost big chunks of last season due to injury. The Jackets had just two guys play at least 80 games. They lost 563 man games due to injury last season, far and away a franchise record. Any sort of repeat to that scenario, probably has this team with another lottery pick next summer. Nothing will expose a team’s shortcomings like missing key players from the lineup, so staying healthy this year may be their most important task – even with the other question marks.
A lot has to go right for the Jackets to compete for a playoff spot this season. They’re a long shot to do so, coming off of a 59-point season. I do think they will improve; but if any one of these five things comes true, the task becomes nearly impossible.
Next. How Does Mark Recchi Affect the CBJ Power-Play?. dark